A team of mathematicians and statisticians from three U.S. universities has found strong evidence that wolves had enough time to evolve into dogs without human intervention.
Using computer simulations, they showed that wolves could have self-domesticated and transformed into modern dogs much faster than previously thought. Their study, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, challenges earlier ideas that this process would have taken too long to fit within the known timeline of human-dog relationships.
The Mystery of Early Dog Evolution
Scientists generally agree that humans and dogs have lived together for about 30,000 years. For the past 15,000 years, humans have actively bred dogs for specific tasks like herding, hunting, and companionship. However, what happened in the first 15,000 years remains unclear.
Some researchers believe early humans played a role in domesticating wolves by adopting the friendliest ones, raising their pups, and gradually encouraging traits that made them more useful.
Others suggest that wolves themselves moved closer to human settlements in search of leftover food, leading to a slow and natural domestication process. However, skeptics have argued that such an evolution would take far longer than 15,000 years.
Testing the Self-Domestication Theory
To address this question, the research team used mathematical models to simulate the evolutionary process. They programmed the model with basic assumptions—such as the tamest wolves being more likely to mate with each other—and factored in the availability of food from human settlements.
They then ran simulations covering a period of 15,000 years. The results showed that, under the right conditions, wolves could have evolved into modern dogs in as little as 8,000 years. Depending on the circumstances, such as food availability and selective mating, the transformation occurred in 37%–74% of the simulations.
What This Means for Dog Evolution
This study provides strong support for the idea that wolves could have self-domesticated rather than needing direct human intervention. The findings suggest that friendly wolves naturally thrived near humans, gradually developing traits that made them more dog-like over thousands of years.
The timeline also aligns well with archaeological evidence showing early human-dog interactions. It means that by the time humans started actively breeding dogs 15,000 years ago, the domestication process was already well underway.
The Bigger Picture
The idea of self-domestication is not unique to dogs. Other animals, including foxes and even some primates, have shown signs of evolving tamer behaviors in response to human presence. This study adds to growing evidence that domestication may not always require direct human control—it can also happen naturally when animals adapt to new environments.
By using mathematics to test biological theories, this research provides a fresh perspective on one of the most fascinating relationships in human history: the bond between people and their canine companions.
The research findings can be found in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
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