A new study from Lund University in Malmö, Sweden, suggests that the size of your waist compared to your height could be a better way to predict your risk of heart failure than the commonly used body mass index, or BMI.
The research was shared at the Heart Failure 2025 conference by Dr. Amra Jujic and her team. They focused on something called the waist-to-height ratio (WtHR), which measures how much belly fat a person has. Belly fat is considered more harmful to the heart than fat stored in other parts of the body.
BMI is often used to measure if someone is overweight, but it has some serious limits. It simply compares your weight to your height and doesn’t show where fat is stored. It also doesn’t take into account things like sex or ethnic background, which can affect how fat is distributed in the body.
On the other hand, WtHR looks specifically at belly fat. You calculate it by dividing your waist size by your height. Experts say your waist should be less than half your height. For example, if you are 170 cm tall, your waist should be less than 85 cm. A WtHR of less than 0.5 is considered healthy.
To explore this, the researchers studied 1,792 people from the Malmö Preventive Project. The participants were between 45 and 73 years old at the start of the study. The average age was 67, and about 29% were women. Some had diabetes, some had slightly high blood sugar, and others had normal levels. The average WtHR was 0.57—already above the healthy range.
The participants were followed for more than 12 years. During that time, 132 of them developed heart failure. The researchers found that people with higher waist-to-height ratios were much more likely to develop heart failure.
Even after considering other health issues, those with the highest WtHR had nearly three times the risk of heart failure compared to those with the lowest ratios.
Dr. John Molvin, another researcher on the study, explained that a large number of participants had waists bigger than half their height, putting them at higher risk. He said WtHR may be a better tool than BMI for predicting heart failure and managing obesity-related health issues.
The team now wants to study even larger groups to see if this measurement can help predict other conditions, like diabetes and heart disease.
This study shows how important it is to look beyond just weight and BMI. Belly fat may carry more risk than we thought, and using simple tools like waist-to-height ratio could help catch health problems earlier.
If you care about heart health, please read studies about top foods to love for a stronger heart, and why oranges may help fight obesity, diabetes, and heart disease.
For more health information, please see recent studies about simple guide to a 7-day diabetes meal plan, and why you should add black beans to your plate.
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