Study shows how hard it is to lose weight—and who’s most likely to succeed

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Weight management is a common goal for many adults, especially those struggling with overweight or obesity.

But how many people are actually able to achieve meaningful weight loss each year?

A new study published in JAMA Network Open helps answer this question—and the results are both revealing and concerning.

The study, led by Dr. Lyudmyla Kompaniyets from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), analyzed electronic health records from 18 million adults across the United States, covering the years 2009 to 2022.

One of the most important findings was that only one in 10 adults with excess weight managed to lose 5% or more of their body weight each year. This is the amount of weight loss that doctors generally consider to be beneficial for health, especially when it comes to reducing the risk of diabetes, heart disease, and other chronic conditions.

The researchers also found that starting weight matters. People who had a higher body mass index (BMI) at the beginning of the study were more likely to lose a meaningful amount of weight.

For example, only one in 12 people with overweight (not yet obese) managed to lose 5% of their weight in a year. But for those with a very high BMI of 45 or more, that number improved to one in six.

The study didn’t stop there. It also looked at how weight loss success varied between men and women, and among different ethnic groups.

Women were generally more successful than men at both losing weight and reaching a healthy BMI. Among all ethnic groups, White women were the most likely to achieve these goals.

Looking over a longer time frame—anywhere from three to 14 years—the chances of losing weight improved. About one-third of people who started out overweight and around 42% of those who started out obese were able to lose at least 5% of their body weight.

But reaching a healthy BMI was still very rare. Only about 23% of people who were initially overweight got down to a healthy BMI, and just 2% of those who were obese managed to do so.

These findings show just how difficult long-term weight loss can be, especially for those who start with a higher BMI. The authors of the study say this points to the need for more personalized and effective weight loss strategies.

Health care providers and public health programs should consider factors like starting weight, gender, and ethnicity when creating treatment plans.

Weight management is a complex issue, and there is no one-size-fits-all solution. The study highlights the need for better support, more targeted interventions, and continued research to help people lose weight and keep it off.

In conclusion, while some individuals do succeed in losing weight, most adults with overweight or obesity face an uphill battle. Understanding the challenges and providing the right tools and support will be key to helping more people reach their health goals.

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