Ultra-processed foods have become a major part of modern diets. They include products such as soft drinks, packaged snacks, instant noodles, sugary breakfast cereals, processed meats, and many ready-to-eat meals.
These foods are often convenient and inexpensive, but researchers are becoming increasingly concerned about their long-term effects on health. A new Canadian study suggests they may be linked to a large share of heart disease and stroke.
The research was published in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine and presented at the 2026 International Congress on Obesity in Mexico City. Scientists from the University of Montreal’s Center for Public Health Research wanted to estimate how much cardiovascular disease in Canada could be linked to diets high in ultra-processed foods.
Heart disease and stroke are among the leading causes of death in Canada and many other developed countries. Together they account for about one in every four deaths in Canada each year.
Previous studies have already linked diets rich in ultra-processed foods with obesity, type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and unhealthy cholesterol levels, all of which increase cardiovascular risk.
Instead of following people over time, the researchers used a well-established modelling method called comparative risk assessment. They combined national food consumption data with Canadian health statistics and international research to estimate how many heart attacks, strokes and cardiovascular deaths could be connected to ultra-processed food intake.
The analysis showed that Canadian adults obtained about 43% of their daily calories from ultra-processed foods in 2015. Based on the model, between 23% and 38% of all new cases of heart disease and stroke in 2019 could be linked to these eating patterns. This represented an estimated 58,200 to 96,000 new cardiovascular cases.
The researchers also estimated that between 10,600 and 17,400 cardiovascular deaths may have been associated with high ultra-processed food consumption. In addition, hundreds of thousands of healthy years of life were lost because of illness, disability and premature death.
One of the most striking findings came from the team’s modelling of healthier diets. If Canadians reduced their intake of ultra-processed foods by half, an estimated 27,300 to 45,900 cardiovascular disease cases and up to 8,300 deaths might have been prevented in a single year.
The researchers say these findings highlight the importance of improving the food environment instead of relying only on individual choices. Ultra-processed foods dominate supermarket shelves, convenience stores and fast-food outlets, making healthier eating difficult for many families. Policies such as clearer nutrition labels, restrictions on unhealthy food marketing, food reformulation and taxes on sugary products may help encourage healthier diets.
They also pointed to examples from other countries. Chile’s front-of-package warning labels reduced purchases of unhealthy foods, while Mexico’s tax on sugary drinks lowered consumption. These experiences suggest that national policies can change buying habits across the population.
This study provides a broad estimate rather than direct proof that ultra-processed foods cause cardiovascular disease. Because the researchers relied on statistical modelling and data from comparable countries, the exact numbers may change as more evidence becomes available.
Even so, the findings agree with many earlier studies showing that diets rich in highly processed foods are linked to poorer heart health. Future long-term studies in Canada and other countries will help confirm these estimates and guide public health policy.
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Source: University of Montreal.
