A new study suggests that ending birthright citizenship in the United States could have far-reaching effects, especially for Asian and Latino communities.
Researchers from Penn State University estimate that by 2050, up to 6.4 million children born in the U.S. could grow up without a clear legal status if the policy is changed.
Their findings were published in the journal Demography.
Birthright citizenship has been a cornerstone of U.S. law since 1868, when the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guaranteed citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents’ immigration status.
The new study explores what might happen if this rule is removed or restricted.
The researchers found that Latino families would be the most affected in absolute numbers.
By 2050, more than 90% of U.S.-born children without legal status would be of Latino background. This is largely because Latino immigrants make up a significant share of the current undocumented population.
However, the study also highlights a different trend for Asian families. While the total number may be smaller, the relative increase would be the largest among all groups.
The researchers estimate a sharp rise in children born without citizenship among Asian immigrants, mainly because many Asian parents come to the U.S. on student or work visas.
Under the proposed policy changes, children born to parents on temporary visas—such as international students or skilled workers—may no longer automatically receive citizenship. This could dramatically change the lives of many families who are legally in the country but still waiting for permanent residency.
The researchers explain that many Asian immigrants arrive during their prime working and family-building years. It can take years, sometimes more than a decade, for them to obtain a green card. During this time, they may have children who, under a new policy, would not be recognized as citizens.
To reach their conclusions, the research team combined data from multiple sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Homeland Security. They created models to predict how different policy scenarios might play out over the next 25 years, taking into account birth rates, migration patterns, and population trends.
In one scenario, where only children of undocumented parents are affected, about 5.3 million children would be born without legal status. In a broader scenario that also includes children of temporary visa holders, that number rises to 6.4 million, with around 3.4 million still living in the U.S. by 2050.
Beyond the numbers, the study raises concerns about long-term economic and social impacts. Many immigrants contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, particularly in education, innovation, and skilled work. The researchers warn that limiting opportunities for their children could reduce these contributions in the future.
There is also concern that highly skilled workers may choose to leave the U.S. if their children cannot gain citizenship. This could lead to a loss of talent and reduce the return on investments made in educating international students.
Overall, the study suggests that changes to birthright citizenship could reshape not only immigration patterns but also the country’s workforce and economic future.
