Heart failure is becoming a serious health problem in many countries, including across Europe.
It happens when the heart cannot pump blood as well as it should.
This can lead to tiredness, shortness of breath, and fluid buildup in the body.
Many people only find out they have heart failure when symptoms become obvious, which often means the disease is already advanced.
Because of this, early detection is very important. If doctors can identify people at risk before symptoms appear, they may be able to prevent or delay the disease.
A new study led by researchers at the University of Tartu in Estonia offers a promising step in this direction. The research was published in the European Heart Journal.
The team developed two new tools that can help doctors estimate a person’s risk of developing heart failure. These tools are based on large amounts of health data collected from different countries. By analyzing patterns in this data, the researchers were able to build models that can predict who is more likely to develop heart problems in the future.
The first tool is designed for people in the general population. It can estimate the risk of developing heart failure over a very long period, up to 30 years. This is important because heart disease often develops slowly over time.
The model uses simple health information that is already collected in routine check-ups. This includes blood pressure, body weight, smoking habits, and whether a person has conditions like diabetes.
The second tool is designed for people who already have heart or blood vessel problems. These individuals are at higher risk, so the model focuses on predicting their chances of developing heart failure over the next 10 years. It uses medical records to provide a more personalized risk estimate.
To create these tools, the researchers used a large national database from Estonia that includes health and social information from hundreds of thousands of people. This allowed them to study long-term trends and identify key risk factors. They then tested the models using data from the Estonian Biobank to make sure the predictions were reliable.
The study also revealed that the risk of heart failure is not the same across Europe. People in Eastern and Central Europe, including Estonia, tend to have higher risk levels compared to those in Western Europe. This may be due to differences in lifestyle, such as smoking and alcohol use, as well as historical and social factors.
These findings highlight the importance of prevention. By identifying high-risk individuals early, doctors can recommend lifestyle changes or treatments that may reduce the chance of developing heart failure. This could include improving diet, increasing physical activity, and better control of blood pressure and diabetes.
However, there are some limitations to the study. The models are based on data from specific populations, so they may not work equally well in all countries. More research is needed to test their accuracy in different settings. In addition, risk prediction does not guarantee that a person will or will not develop the disease.
Even with these limitations, the study represents an important step forward. It shows how large health data sets can be used to improve early detection and prevention. If these tools are adopted in clinical practice, they could help doctors make better decisions and improve patient outcomes.
In the future, these models may become part of routine health care. This would allow more people to understand their risk and take action early. As heart disease continues to be a major global challenge, such tools could play a key role in reducing its impact.
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