Conspiracy theories have long been a part of American culture, but new research suggests they may be more widespread than many people realize.
Far from being limited to the stereotypical “tinfoil hat” crowd, belief in conspiratorial ideas touches a large portion of the population—across political lines and social groups.
A newly published survey offers a close look at how quickly conspiracy theories can take hold, using the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on then-presidential candidate Donald Trump as a case study.
Conducted just days after the shooting, the survey is one of the clearest snapshots yet of how rumors and misinformation spread in real time. The findings were published in PNAS Nexus.
David Lazer, a professor at Northeastern University and co-author of the study, explained that the timing gave his team a unique opportunity.
“A fair number of people heard about and believe these conspiracies,” he said. “We could anticipate that filling the vacuum would be conspiracies on both the left and the right.”
And that’s exactly what happened. On the right, rumors spread that Democratic operatives had arranged the shooting to stop Trump from winning the election. On the left, another theory circulated that Republicans had staged the attempt themselves in order to boost Trump’s popularity and sympathy among voters.
The survey showed that 95 percent of respondents had heard about the attack itself.
But exposure to conspiracy theories was also widespread: 41 percent of respondents had already heard the right-leaning theory, while 53 percent were aware of the left-leaning version. Among those exposed, belief was not insignificant.
About 13 percent said it was “very likely” Democrats were behind the attack, while another 16 percent said it was “somewhat likely.” For the Republican-staged theory, 12 percent called it “very likely” and 17 percent “somewhat likely.”
The survey also traced where people were hearing these ideas. Social media was the biggest driver, with more than half of respondents citing it as their main source. Interpersonal networks—friends, family, coworkers—came next, followed by television.
Interestingly, the data showed that hearing about a theory and believing it are two different things. Social media was where people encountered conspiracy claims most often, but belief was more strongly tied to personal connections.
“If you heard it from someone you know, you were more likely to believe it,” Lazer explained.
The research didn’t stop there. Lazer and his team also carried out a broader national survey of 124,000 people across all 50 states, published in the Journal of Affective Disorders.
That study revealed that nearly 79 percent of people agreed with at least one conspiratorial statement, while 19 percent agreed with all four questions posed by the standard American Conspiratorial Thinking Scale.
The data suggests that conspiratorial thinking is not rare and not confined to any one political camp. It was most prevalent among men ages 25 to 54, those with a high school education but no college degree, and people reporting symptoms of depression.
For Lazer, these findings highlight the importance of studying how and why conspiracies spread. They point not just to the dangers of misinformation, but also to deeper issues of mistrust and the human need to make sense of a confusing world. “Making sense of this world is tough,” Lazer said.
“It feels like that process of distributed sense-making is breaking down in our country.”
