A new study has found that the world’s supply of lithium may not keep up with the rapidly growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs), especially in China, Europe, and the United States.
The research, published in Cell Reports Sustainability, shows that even if these regions increase their lithium production significantly by 2030, they still won’t produce enough to meet their own needs without relying on imports or developing new technologies.
Lithium is a key material used in the batteries that power EVs. According to the study’s lead author Qifan Xia from East China Normal University, lithium today is as important as gasoline was during the Industrial Revolution.
However, while the earth has a good amount of lithium overall, it’s not spread evenly across the globe.
The study explored whether the world’s top EV markets could become self-sufficient in lithium production.
The researchers estimated that by 2030, China could need around 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent to meet the demand for new EVs.
Europe would need about 792,000 metric tons, and the U.S. around 692,000. However, based on current and upcoming mining projects, China might produce up to 1.1 million metric tons, Europe 325,000, and the U.S. between 229,000 and 610,000 metric tons.
These numbers show that none of the three regions will be able to fully meet their lithium needs on their own, even if they follow through on their most ambitious mining plans.
The study also showed how growing demand in one region could make it harder for others to get enough lithium. For instance, if China increases its lithium imports by 77%, the U.S. could see its imports drop by 84%, and Europe’s by 78%. This competition could cause tensions in global trade and make it even harder to build enough EVs to meet climate targets.
To help solve the problem, researchers suggest more than just mining. They recommend exploring alternative battery technologies, like sodium-ion batteries, which use less or no lithium. Another approach would be to focus less on personal electric cars and invest more in public transportation, which could reduce the overall demand for lithium.
The authors warn that without quick and coordinated action—such as boosting supply, finding new sources, and managing demand—the world may struggle to meet its climate and clean energy goals.
Source: Cell Press.
