What if everyone in the Netherlands ate two pieces of fruit each day and gave up processed meats like sausages and hamburgers?
A new study from Wageningen University & Research (WUR) shows that this simple change could lead to a major drop in serious illnesses by 2050—including fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.
Published in eClinicalMedicine, the research reveals that if Dutch people followed just two key dietary guidelines—eating more fruit and cutting out processed meat—the country could see about 20% fewer new cases of some of its most common diseases.
Specifically, giving up processed meat could prevent 22% of new diabetes cases and 21% of heart disease cases.
Meanwhile, eating two pieces of fruit every day could reduce the number of strokes by more than 18%.
Lead researcher Ming-Jie (Frederick) Duan says that even though these percentages may not sound huge, they represent thousands of lives.
For example, over one million people in the Netherlands already live with type 2 diabetes. Small changes at a population level could make a big difference.
The study used existing data from national food surveys and earlier research on how diet affects health. The findings show that the average Dutch person eats only half the recommended amount of fruit and still consumes about 40 grams of processed meat each day—despite clear guidelines from the Health Council of the Netherlands to avoid it.
Sander Biesbroek, another researcher on the study, explained that many people still don’t eat enough fruits, vegetables, legumes, or whole grains. At the same time, sugary drinks and processed meats remain common in the average diet.
By combining what’s already known about food and health risks with current eating habits, the researchers were able to estimate how many future disease cases could be prevented if diets improved.
Changing national eating habits is not easy. Biesbroek points out that the widespread availability and marketing of unhealthy, highly processed foods make it hard for people to make better choices. That’s why the researchers believe that stronger food policies are needed to support healthier eating.
One idea is to make healthy foods more affordable by reducing taxes, while raising taxes on unhealthy items like processed meats. The study also found benefits from other dietary changes: eating more nuts and seeds can reduce diabetes and heart disease risk, and increasing whole grains could help prevent 10% of strokes. Avoiding processed meat also lowers the risk of bowel cancer and strokes by around 10%.
The bottom line is clear: improving diets could protect health and ease the burden on the healthcare system in the decades to come.
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