Over half of adults will be overweight by 2050

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A new study warns that nearly 60% of adults and one-third of children worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050 unless urgent action is taken.

Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) analyzed data from 204 countries and described the obesity crisis as one of the most serious health challenges of this century.

Published in The Lancet, the study highlights the rapid rise in global obesity. In 1990, 929 million people were overweight or obese. By 2021, that number had nearly tripled to 2.6 billion. If current trends continue, 3.8 billion adults—around 60% of the global adult population—will be overweight or obese by 2050.

A Growing Burden on Health Systems

This surge in obesity will put enormous pressure on healthcare systems. The study estimates that by 2050, about a quarter of all obese individuals will be over age 65, increasing the risk of health problems like heart disease, diabetes, and cancer.

Children and teenagers are also expected to be affected. The study predicts a 121% increase in obesity rates among young people over the next 15 years. By 2050, one-third of obese children will be living in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Where Is Obesity Most Common?

Currently, over half of the world’s overweight or obese adults live in just eight countries:

  • China
  • India
  • United States
  • Brazil
  • Russia
  • Mexico
  • Indonesia
  • Egypt

These nations have some of the world’s largest populations, but the study suggests that rising fast food consumption, sedentary lifestyles, and urbanization are key drivers of the obesity epidemic in these regions.

What Can Be Done?

Study co-author Jessica Kerr, from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, believes there is still time to act. She calls for stronger government action to improve diets and promote healthier lifestyles.

“Much stronger political commitment is needed to transform diets within sustainable global food systems,” Kerr said. She also emphasized the need for changes in physical activity and urban design, including reducing access to ultra-processed foods and creating more public spaces like parks.

The Mystery of Obesity’s Causes

While poor diet and lack of exercise are major factors, scientists still don’t fully understand why obesity rates are rising so rapidly.

Researcher Thorkild Sorensen from the University of Copenhagen noted that socially disadvantaged groups are consistently more likely to be obese, but the reasons for this pattern remain unclear.

A Call for Global Action

This study, part of the Global Burden of Disease research funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, serves as a warning to policymakers, healthcare professionals, and individuals. If obesity continues to rise at this rate, the world will face severe health and economic consequences.

However, with better nutrition policies, increased public awareness, and improved living environments, it may still be possible to slow down or even reverse this global health crisis.

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The research findings can be found in The Lancet.

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