In Sweden, a country known for its health-conscious population and progressive public health policies, a surprising trend has emerged.
Despite a dramatic decrease in the number of smokers over the past few decades, the expected decline in lung cancer cases has not followed, particularly among women, where it has actually increased.
This unexpected finding comes from recent research at Umeå University, suggesting a need to rethink how smoking affects our health over time.
Back in the 1960s, smoking was much more common in Sweden, with about half of Swedish men between the ages of 18 and 69 lighting up regularly.
At that time, only a small fraction of women smoked, but as years went by, more women started to pick up the habit. Fast forward to today, and you’ll find that only about 5% of the Swedish population smokes daily—a significant drop.
Historically, it’s been understood that quitting smoking greatly reduces the risk of developing lung cancer.
Studies from other countries, like the UK, have shown that stopping smoking before the age of 50 can dramatically lower the risk of lung cancer by the age of 75. So, it was expected that as fewer Swedes smoked, fewer would suffer from lung cancer.
However, the research team at Umeå University discovered something different. When they looked at lung cancer rates from 1970 to 2021 among Swedes aged 40 to 84, they didn’t find the significant decrease they were expecting.
Instead, lung cancer rates among men aged 75 to 79 hadn’t changed much over the years. Although there was a notable drop in a specific type of lung cancer linked to smoking, another common type had increased sixfold.
For women, the situation was even more concerning. The rate of lung cancer among older women had risen to match that of men, despite historical differences in smoking habits. This finding was especially true for the same type of lung cancer that had increased among men.
The study couldn’t pinpoint exactly why these trends were happening, suggesting the need for more research.
Some possible explanations include people not being entirely honest about their smoking habits or maybe that the health benefits of quitting smoking don’t kick in as quickly as previously thought.
It’s also possible that other factors, like environmental or lifestyle changes, could be contributing to the risk of lung cancer, even for those who’ve never smoked.
Interestingly, the research showed a stark contrast in lung cancer trends between men and women, likely due to women starting to smoke later than men in Sweden’s history. This delay might be why lung cancer rates are worsening for women now, even as they improve for men.
Despite these unsettling findings, the researchers stress the importance of quitting smoking as early as possible—or better yet, not starting at all.
The study underscores that the risk of lung cancer might remain high for longer than expected after quitting smoking, highlighting the need for continued efforts in smoking cessation and public health initiatives to combat lung cancer.
If you care about lung health, please read studies about marijuana’s effects on lung health, and why some non-smokers get lung disease and some heavy smokers do not.
For more information about health, please see recent studies that olive oil may help you live longer, and vitamin D could help lower the risk of autoimmune diseases.
The research findings can be found in the European Journal of Public Health.
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