For centuries, sailors have told tales of enormous rogue waves, capable of damaging ships and oil platforms.
These monster waves, often dismissed as myths, are indeed real.
In a groundbreaking study, researchers from the University of Copenhagen and the University of Victoria have made a significant leap in understanding and predicting these maritime giants.
By harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and analyzing an immense amount of data—over a billion waves, or 700 years’ worth—they’ve developed a formula that can predict when these waves might occur, potentially revolutionizing maritime safety.
The existence of rogue waves was confirmed in 1995 when a massive 26-meter wave struck the Draupner oil platform in the North Sea.
This event, captured by digital instruments, marked the first scientific evidence of these abnormal ocean waves. Since then, researchers have been keen to understand and predict these phenomena.
At the Niels Bohr Institute, a team led by Dion Häfner and Johannes Gemmrich turned to AI for answers.
They collected extensive data on ocean movements, including depth, and wave height from buoys around US coasts and territories. This data formed a rich, 700-year historical record of the sea state.
By applying machine learning, the team found that rogue waves are not rare occurrences. Their data revealed that about one monster wave hits somewhere in the ocean every day. However, not all are catastrophically large.
The AI methods used by the researchers did more than just process data; they helped uncover the underlying causes of rogue waves.
The most significant factor, they found, was “linear superposition,” a concept known since the 1700s. It occurs when two wave systems cross and amplify each other, creating the potential for massive waves.
The result of this research is an algorithm that can calculate the likelihood of rogue wave formation, a tool invaluable to the shipping industry. With around 50,000 cargo ships at sea at any time, this algorithm can help in planning safer routes by predicting the occurrence of these waves.
One of the unique aspects of this study is the transparency of the AI methods used.
Unlike many AI applications, which are often “black boxes,” this algorithm’s workings are clear and understandable. It transforms the vast database of wave observations into a straightforward equation for rogue wave probability, making it accessible to researchers and related to physical laws.
This breakthrough can significantly impact maritime safety. Shipping companies, now armed with this knowledge, can assess the risk of encountering rogue waves and choose safer routes.
This new knowledge, publicly available along with the wave data, can also be utilized by authorities and weather services to calculate rogue wave probabilities.
This study marks a major advancement in our understanding of the ocean’s most mysterious and dangerous phenomena.
By combining AI with centuries of data, researchers have not only proven the existence of rogue waves but have also provided a way to predict them, making the high seas a safer place for all.
