Arthritis is a common condition that causes pain and inflammation in the joints.
However, predicting who is at risk of developing this painful condition can be tricky.
Thankfully, a team of researchers from the University of Leeds, United Kingdom, has come up with a new approach.
They created a new scoring system to assess the risk of developing a type of arthritis called inflammatory arthritis.
The Two New Scoring Systems
The research team, led by a doctor named Laurence Duquenne, introduced two scoring systems to identify people who might develop inflammatory arthritis in the future.
They developed these systems using a method that observes and collects information about a group of people over time.
The first score, called the simple score, uses a process known as logistic regression. This is a type of calculation that helps researchers figure out the odds of something happening – in this case, a person developing arthritis.
The second score, referred to as the comprehensive score, uses a slightly more complex calculation method. Despite the added complexity, it aims to provide a more thorough risk assessment.
In the study, 455 people were observed. Out of these, almost a third (148 people) ended up developing inflammatory arthritis. Surprisingly, 70 people developed it within just one year.
When the researchers applied their new scoring systems, they found interesting results. The simple score identified 249 people as low-risk and 206 as high-risk for developing arthritis.
However, the system wasn’t perfect – it wrongly identified 5% of people as low-risk when they actually were high-risk (false negatives) and 72% as high-risk when they actually were low-risk (false positives).
On the other hand, the comprehensive score identified 119 people as high-risk and 336 as low-risk. While this method also had some errors, it performed better than the simple score with false positives at 29% and false negatives at 19%.
When they looked at the high-risk groups, they found that 40% and 71% developed arthritis within one and five years respectively.
How These Scoring Systems Can Help
These new scoring systems are more than just a scientific exercise. They offer practical benefits for both doctors and patients.
The simple score is cost-effective, easy to replicate, and perfect for use in general doctor’s offices. It has the ability to reassure the low-risk group who might not need to be referred to a specialist.
Meanwhile, the comprehensive score is great for spotting the high-risk group. This makes it useful for guiding medical treatment and for planning studies to try out new treatments.
The authors of the study believe that these scoring systems will be beneficial for people and healthcare systems alike.
They help in understanding who might be at risk of developing arthritis, allowing for early interventions and better management of this common, but debilitating condition.
If you care about pain, please read studies about why cholesterol-lowering drug statins can cause muscle pain, and this pain reliever may increase your risk of hip fracture.
For more information about health, please see recent studies about better drugs for treating low back pain, and results showing calcium supplements may harm your heart health.
The study was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
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