Projections Indicate a Substantial Increase in Heart Attacks
A study led by Dr. Nicholas Chew predicts a nearly three-fold (194.4%) increase in the number of heart attacks in Singapore from 2025 to 2050, escalating from 482 to 1,418 per 100,000 population.
In 2025, it’s estimated that 4 in 1,000 Singaporeans will have a heart attack, but this figure is predicted to increase to 1 in 100 Singaporeans by 2050. The main metabolic risk factor driving this surge is predicted to be obesity.
Data Analysis Reveals Obesity as a Key Risk Factor
The study used data from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR) from 2007 to 2018.
It projected the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, hyperlipidemia (high cholesterol), overweight/obesity, and cigarette smoking among acute myocardial infarction (AMI) cases and AMI-related mortality from 2025 to 2050.
The research found obesity to be the fastest-growing and leading metabolic risk factor for heart attack by 2050, with an almost ten-fold increase.
Females and Malays at Higher Risk
The projected increase in heart attacks will disproportionately affect overweight or obese females, with a more than 13-fold increase in the AMI cohort by 2050.
A significant increase in heart attacks is also predicted among Malays, with obese Malays seeing a 12-fold increase in cases per 100,000 population between 2025 and 2050.
Reducing Upstream Metabolic Risks Can Halt the Upward Trajectory
The researchers suggest that early detection and treatment of subclinical diseases in vulnerable groups could halt the projected upward trajectory of AMI.
They also highlight the potential benefits of nationwide heart health programs.
Dr. Nicholas Chew emphasizes the need to move away from a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach, citing the rise of obesity as a risk factor for metabolic disease in younger and middle-aged groups, with hypertension and hyperlipidemia being more prevalent in older populations.
Insights to Guide Global Response to Cardiovascular-Metabolic Diseases
Associate Professor Mark Chan points out that while many studies have explored cardiovascular disease trajectories in Western populations, few have focused on increasingly multi-ethnic Asia.
He believes that the trends identified in this study could inform future global responses to cardiovascular-metabolic diseases.
If you care about heart health, please read studies about how eating eggs can help reduce heart disease risk, and popular weight loss diet linked to heart disease and cancer.
For more information about health, please see recent studies about how drinking milk affects risks of heart disease and cancer, and results showing scientists find new way to heal heart muscle.
The research is published in The Lancet Regional Health—Western Pacific journal.
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