When it comes to movie reviews, one might assume that positive reviews lead to success at the box office, while negative reviews spell failure.
However, a recent study conducted by researchers at the University of California, Davis, has turned this perception on its head.
The study, titled “What reviews foretell about opening weekend box office revenue: the harbinger of failure effect in the movie industry,” suggests that the impact of movie reviews on box office performance is more nuanced than previously thought.
The researchers analyzed pre-release reviews written by film critics on Rotten Tomatoes to understand their predictive power.
Surprisingly, they discovered a phenomenon they called the “harbinger of failure effect.”
The study found that certain film critics, who tend to give positive reviews before a movie’s release, often signaled that the movie would not perform well at the box office.
Conversely, negative reviews from these critics indicated that the film might be a success. The strength of the sentiment expressed in the reviews further influenced the predictive power.
Interestingly, this pattern persisted even among top critics, challenging the belief that positive reviews always translate to box office success.
The study also explored the personalities and writing styles of these critics, revealing that the harbinger critics tend to have a formal and analytical writing style and use fewer self-reference pronouns.
Lead author Pantelis Loupos, an assistant professor of marketing and business analysis, highlighted the importance of recognizing the complexity and unpredictability of the movie industry.
The study’s findings shed light on the multifaceted nature of movie reviews and their impact on box office outcomes.
This research opens up new avenues for understanding the role of critics in the film industry and challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding the influence of reviews on a movie’s success.
It serves as a reminder that predicting box office performance is not always straightforward and that the movie industry is full of surprises.
