Scientists from the University of Toronto found that unvaccinated people threaten the safety of the vaccinated even when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rates are high.
The research is published in CMAJ and was conducted by Dr. David Fisman et al.
Many opponents of vaccine mandates have framed vaccine adoption as a matter of individual choice.
However, this study found that the choices made by people who forgo vaccination contribute disproportionately to risk among those who do get vaccinated.
In the study, the team used a simple model to explore the effect of mixing between unvaccinated and vaccinated people to understand the dynamics of an infectious disease like SARS-CoV-2.
They simulated the mixing of like-with-like populations in which people have exclusive contact with others of the same vaccination status as well as random mixing between different groups.
When unvaccinated mixed with unvaccinated, the risk to vaccinated people was lower.
When vaccinated and unvaccinated people mixed, a substantial number of new infections would occur in vaccinated people, even in scenarios where vaccination rates were high.
The findings remained stable even when they modeled lower levels of vaccine effectiveness for the prevention of infection, such as in those who have not received a booster dose or with new SARS-CoV-2 variants.
These findings may be relevant to future waves of SARS-CoV-2 or to the behavior of new variants.
The team says risk among unvaccinated people cannot be considered self-regarding.
In other words, forgoing vaccination can’t be considered to affect only the unvaccinated, but also those around them.
The team says considerations around equity and justice for people who do choose to be vaccinated, as well as those who choose not to be, need to be considered in the formulation of vaccination policy.
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