Imagine visiting the doctor, answering a few basic questions, and getting an on-the-spot estimate of whether you’ll experience heart failure in the next 30 years.
In a new study from Northwestern Medicine, researchers developed such a model.
Their study derived and validated the first set of risk prediction models for lifetime risk of heart failure.
The ability to identify who is at greatest risk for heart failure—especially among high-risk young adult populations—will allow physicians to start prevention measures sooner.
The team says once someone develops symptoms of heart failure, the window for prevention has closed, which is a missed opportunity, given that the risk of dying in the five years after diagnosis is 50%, similar to a cancer diagnosis.
Prior to this work, no models existed for estimating long-term risk for heart failure. Short-term models exist that estimate heart failure risk in the next five to 10 years.
But those aren’t as effective for young adults who may not develop heart failure until they are older.
In the study, the team developed the model that will allow doctors to estimate a person’s risk of developing heart failure in the next 30 years based on their current risk factor levels, such as body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking status.
The scientists are currently working on an online tool that could be used by physicians.
Currently, there are effective strategies to reduce a person’s risk of heart failure.
These include lowering blood pressure or blood sugar with specific medications combined with diet and exercise.
But without being able to quantify a person’s risk of developing heart failure, it is difficult to identify who should receive these prevention measures.
The new model offers the opportunity for clinicians and patients to begin discussions at the individual level for opportunities to start prevention earlier in the life course.
This moves the field forward by offering a precision approach to prevention and moving beyond risk associated with having or not having hypertension or diabetes.
If you care about heart health, please read studies about nutrient that can protect your heart rate, and findings of diet that could prevent or even reverse heart failure.
For more information about heart health, please see recent studies about big cause of heart failure, and results showing this drug combo may reduce your risks of heart attack and stroke
The study is published in Circulation Research. One author of the study is Dr. Sadiya Khan.
Copyright © 2021 Knowridge Science Report. All rights reserved.
