In a new study from Virginia Commonwealth University, researchers found that extended surges in the South and West in the summer and early winter of 2020 resulted in regional increases in excess death rates, both from COVID-19 and from other causes.
The research offers new data from the last 10 months of 2020 on how many Americans died during 2020 as a result of the effects of the pandemic.
The rate of excess deaths—or deaths above the number that would be expected based on averages from the previous five years—is usually consistent, fluctuating 1% to 2% from year to year.
But from March 1, 2020, to Jan. 2, 2021, excess deaths rose a staggering 22.9% nationally, fueled by COVID-19 and deaths from other causes, with regions experiencing surges at different times.
The team found COVID-19 accounted for roughly 72% of the excess deaths. There is a sizable gap between the number of publicly reported COVID-19 deaths and the sum total of excess deaths the country has actually experienced.
For the other 28% of the nation’s 522,368 excess deaths during that period, some may actually have been from COVID-19, even if the virus was not listed on the death certificates due to reporting issues.
But the team says disruptions caused by the pandemic were another cause of the 28% of excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19.
Examples might include deaths resulting from not seeking or finding adequate care in an emergency such as a heart attack, experiencing fatal complications from a chronic disease such as diabetes, or facing a behavioral health crisis that led to suicide or drug overdose.
The team also found surges in excess deaths varied across regions of the United States. Northeastern states, such as New York and New Jersey, were among the first hit by the pandemic.
Their pandemic curves looked like a capital “A,” peaking in April and returning rapidly to baseline within eight weeks because strict restrictions were put in place.
But the increase in excess deaths lasted much longer in other states that lifted restrictions early and were hit hard later in the year.
According to the study’s data, the 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Arizona, Alabama, Louisiana, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota and Ohio.
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The study is published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. One author of the study is Steven Woolf, M.D.
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