Getting control of COVID-19 will take more than widespread vaccination.
It will also require a better understanding of why the disease causes no apparent symptoms in some people but leads to rapid multi-organ failure and death in others, as well as better insight into what treatments work best and for which patients.
In a new study, researchers created a model based on information about the infectious machinery of SARS-CoV-2 and about the mechanisms of various treatments that have been tested in COVID-19.
The model predicts that antiviral and anti-inflammatory drugs that were first used to treat COVID-19 might have limited efficacy, depending on the stage of the disease progression.
The research was conducted by a team at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and elsewhere.
The team found that in all patients, the viral load (the level of SARS-CoV-2 particles in the bloodstream) increases during early lung infection, but then may go in different directions starting after Day 5, depending on levels of key immune guardian cells, called T cells.
T cells are the first responders of the immune system that effectively coordinate other aspects of immunity.
The T cell response is known as adaptive immunity because it is flexible and responds to immediate threats.
In patients younger than 35 who have healthy immune systems, sustained recruitment of T cells occurs, accompanied by a reduction in viral load and inflammation and a decrease in nonspecific immune cells (so-called “innate” immunity).
All of these processes lead to lower risk for blood clot formation and to restoring oxygen levels in lung tissues, and these patients tend to recover.
In contrast, people who have higher levels of inflammation at the time of infection—such as those with diabetes, obesity or high blood pressure—or whose immune systems are tilted toward more active innate immune responses but less effective adaptive immune responses tend to have poor outcomes.
The team also sought to answer the question of why men tend to have more severe COVID-19 compared with women.
They found that although the adaptive immune response is not as vigorous in women as in men, women have lower levels of a protein called TMPRSS2 that allows SARS-CoV-2 to enter and infect normal cells.
Based on their findings, the researchers propose that optimal treatment for older patients should include the clot-preventing drug heparin and/or the use of an immune response-modifying drug (checkpoint inhibitor) in the early stages of the disease, and the anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone at later stages.
Older people are likely to already have inflammation and impaired immune responses compared with younger patients.
In patients with pre-existing conditions such as obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure or immune system abnormalities, treatment might also include drugs targeted against inflammation-promoting substances (cytokines, such as interleukin-6) in the body.
Drugs that can inhibit the renin-angiotensin system (the body’s main blood pressure control mechanism), thereby preventing activation of abnormal blood pressure and resistance to blood flow that can occur in response to viral infections can also be helpful.
This work shows how tools originally developed for cancer research can be useful for understanding COVID-19:
The model was first created to analyze the involvement of the renin angiotensin system in the development of fibrous tissues in tumors but was modified to include SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-specific mechanisms.
The team is further developing the model and plans to use it to examine the dynamics of the immune system in response to different types of COVID-19 vaccines.
One author of the study is Rakesh K. Jain, Ph.D.
The study is published in PNAS.
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