This number is a more powerful predictor for diabetes than genetics

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In 2019, approximately 463 million people worldwide had diabetes, of which the vast majority (around 90%) was type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes doubles the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and death from cardiovascular disease.

Obesity is the main modifiable cause of type 2 diabetes, while genetic make-up may also identify people with a greater likelihood of developing the condition.

In a recent study from the University of Cambridge and elsewhere, researchers found losing weight could prevent or even reverse diabetes.

They found that BMI is a much more powerful risk factor for diabetes that genetic predisposition.

The finding was presented at ESC Congress 2020. One author is Professor Brian Ference.

The team conducted this study to find out if combining inherited risk with current body mass index (BMI) could identify people at the highest risk of developing diabetes.

The study included 445,765 participants of the UK Biobank. The average age was 57.2 years and 54% were women.

Inherited risk of diabetes was assessed using 6.9 million genes. Height and weight were measured at enrollment to calculate BMI in kg/m2.

People were divided into five groups according to the genetic risk of diabetes. They were also divided into five groups according to BMI.

Participants were followed-up until the age of 65.2 years. During that period, 31,298 developed type 2 diabetes.

The team found those in the highest BMI group (average 34.5 kg/m2) had an 11-fold increased risk of diabetes compared to participants in the lowest BMI group (average 21.7 kg/m2).

The highest BMI group had a greater likelihood of developing diabetes than all other BMI groups, regardless of genetic risk.

The findings show that BMI is a much more powerful risk factor for diabetes that genetic predisposition.

The team then used statistical methods to estimate whether the likelihood of diabetes in people with a high BMI would be even greater if they were overweight for a long period of time.

They found that the duration of elevated BMI did not have an impact on the risk of diabetes.

This suggests that when people cross a certain BMI threshold, their chances of diabetes go up and stay at that same high-risk level regardless of how long they are overweight.

The team notes that the threshold is likely different for each person and would be the BMI at which they start to develop abnormal blood sugar levels.

In conclusion, the team says the findings indicate that most cases of diabetes could be avoided by keeping BMI below the cut-off which triggers abnormal blood sugar.

This means that to prevent diabetes, both BMI and blood sugar should be assessed regularly.

Efforts to lose weight are critical when a person starts to develop blood sugar problems.

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