In a new study, researchers found that about half of the adult U.S. population will have obesity and about a quarter will have severe obesity by 2030.
They also predict that in 29 states, more than half of the population will have obesity, and all states will have a prevalence of obesity higher than 35%.
The researchers estimate that, currently, 40% of American adults have obesity and 18% have severe obesity.
The research was led by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
For the study, the researchers used self-reported body mass index (BMI) data from more than 6.2 million adults who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (BRFSS) between 1993 and 2016.
Body mass index (BMI) is calculated by dividing a person’s weight in kilograms by the square of their height in meters. Obesity is defined as a BMI of 30 or higher, and severe obesity is a BMI of 35 or higher.
Self-reported BMIs are frequently biased, so the researchers used novel statistical methods to correct for this bias.
The results showed that by 2030, several states will have obesity prevalence close to 60%, while the lowest states will be approaching 40%.
The researchers predicted that nationally, severe obesity will likely be the most common BMI category for women, non-Hispanic black adults, and those with annual incomes below $50,000 per year.
They said the predictions are troubling because the health and economic effects of obesity and severe obesity take a toll on several aspects of society.
Obesity, and especially severe obesity, are linked to increased rates of chronic disease and medical spending and have negative consequences for life expectancy.
The high projected prevalence of severe obesity among low-income adults has substantial implications for future Medicaid costs.
In addition, the effect of weight stigma could have far-reaching implications for socioeconomic disparities as severe obesity becomes the most common BMI category among low-income adults in nearly every state.
One author of the study is Steven Gortmaker, professor of the practice of health sociology at Harvard Chan School.
The study is published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
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