In a new study of data from 52 countries, researchers find that lung cancer mortality rate among women is projected to increase by 43% from 2015 to 2030.
Meanwhile, the global breast cancer mortality rate is projected to decrease by 9% in the same time frame.
While previous work has focused on projections in lung and breast cancer mortality among women in a single country or continent, few studies have estimated trends in mortality caused by these two common cancers on a global scale.
In this study, the team analyzed breast and female lung cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database from 2008 to 2014.
Fifty-two countries were included: 29 from Europe; 14 from the Americas; seven from Asia; and two from Oceania.
Lung and breast cancer mortality rates in women, reported as per 100,000 person years, were calculated for each country based on the WHO World Standard Population.
The researchers found that globally, among women, the mortality rate for lung cancer is projected to increase from 11.2 in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030.
The highest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 are projected in Europe and Oceania, while the lowest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 are projected in America and Asia.
Only Oceania is predicted to see a decrease in lung cancer mortality, which is projected to fall from 17.8 in 2015 to 17.6 in 2030.
Globally, the mortality rate for breast cancer is projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030.
The highest breast cancer mortality rate is predicted in Europe with a decreasing trend overall, while the lowest breast cancer mortality rate is predicted in Asia with an increasing trend overall.
Compared to middle-income countries, high-income countries have the highest mortality rates for both lung and breast cancer in 2030.
However, high-income countries are more likely to have decreasing breast cancer mortality rates.
Furthermore, the first to witness lung cancer mortality rates surpass breast cancer mortality rates are mostly developed countries.
The lead author is Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez, PhD, MPH, BSc, associate professor and director of the Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Universitat Internacional de Catalunya (UIC Barcelona).
This study was sponsored by the Ministry of Universities and Research of the Government of Catalonia. Martínez-Sánchez declares no conflict of interest.
The study is published in Cancer Research, a journal of the American Association for Cancer Research.
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