A new study from Karolinska Institutet in Sweden suggests that even small changes in kidney function—within what is normally considered a healthy range—could help doctors find people who are at risk of developing chronic kidney disease.
This discovery could help catch kidney problems earlier and improve long-term health outcomes.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a serious health issue that affects about 10 to 15 percent of adults worldwide. It’s becoming more common and is expected to be one of the top five causes of early death globally by the year 2040.
Unfortunately, many people are diagnosed only after they’ve lost more than half of their kidney function, making treatment much more difficult.
To help solve this problem, researchers at Karolinska Institutet looked at a kidney function measure called estimated glomerular filtration rate, or eGFR. It’s a number that tells how well your kidneys are working.
They created detailed charts that show what eGFR levels are normal for different ages and sexes, much like the growth charts used in children to track height and weight. The goal is to help doctors spot when something is slightly off, even if it doesn’t seem dangerous at first glance.
Dr. Yuanhang Yang, one of the study’s authors, said the team was inspired by how easy it is to use growth charts in pediatrics to find health problems early. They wanted to do something similar for kidney health.
Using medical records from more than 1.1 million adults in Stockholm, the researchers looked at nearly 7 million eGFR test results collected between 2006 and 2021. That’s about 80% of all adults aged 40 to 100 in the region.
From this data, the team built age- and sex-specific charts to show what a “normal” eGFR looks like for different groups. They also created a web-based calculator, developed by PhD student Antoine Creon, that allows healthcare workers to enter a patient’s eGFR and age to see how their kidney function compares to others like them.
The study showed that people whose eGFR was below the 25th percentile for their age and sex were at much higher risk of needing dialysis or a kidney transplant later in life. Death rates were also higher in people at both the low and high ends of the eGFR range, forming a U-shaped pattern.
The research also revealed that many patients at risk are being overlooked. For example, among those with an eGFR between 60 and 90—which is often considered normal—only about 25% were given additional tests to look for protein in the urine, an early sign of kidney damage.
One striking example given in the study was of a 55-year-old woman with an eGFR of 80. Most doctors would consider this a healthy number.
But according to the new charts, this places her at the 10th percentile for women her age, which means she’s three times more likely to need dialysis in the future than someone at the average level. This kind of early warning could help doctors take action much sooner.
The researchers hope their new tool will raise awareness and give doctors the ability to detect kidney disease before it becomes severe. Catching the warning signs early can lead to better outcomes and may even help prevent kidney failure altogether.
If you care about kidney health, please read studies about how to protect your kidneys from diabetes, and drinking coffee could help reduce risk of kidney injury.
For more information about kidney health, please see recent studies about foods that may prevent recurrence of kidney stones, and eating nuts linked to lower risk of chronic kidney disease and death.
The study is published in Kidney International.
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