For decades, physicists have suspected that black holes might not last forever—that at the very end of their lives, they could explode in bursts of energy.
Until now, such an event has been thought to be incredibly rare, perhaps only happening once every 100,000 years. But new research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, published in Physical Review Letters, suggests that the odds are far higher.
The team estimates that there is more than a 90 percent chance one of these explosions could be observed within the next 10 years.
If that happens, it would not only confirm theories first proposed by Stephen Hawking in the 1970s but also unlock answers to some of the most profound questions about the origins of the universe.
The black holes astronomers usually study are created when massive stars run out of fuel, collapse, and die in spectacular supernova explosions.
These star-born black holes are extremely heavy and stable, with gravity so intense that not even light can escape.
But physicists have also theorized another type, called primordial black holes (PBHs). These are thought to have formed in the extreme conditions less than a second after the Big Bang, 13.8 billion years ago.
Unlike their heavyweight cousins, PBHs could be much smaller, and that makes them special.
Hawking showed that black holes can emit faint radiation, now called Hawking radiation, as they slowly lose mass. For massive black holes, this process is negligible. But for tiny PBHs, the radiation becomes stronger as they shrink, creating a runaway effect that ends in a powerful explosion.
So far, no one has ever directly observed a PBH or its radiation. But if one exploded nearby, our current telescopes—both in space and on the ground—should be able to detect it.
The Amherst team revisited the long-held assumption that PBHs, like regular black holes, have no electric charge.
In their new model, they considered what might happen if PBHs carried a tiny “dark electric charge,” connected to a hypothetical heavy particle they call a “dark electron.”
Their calculations showed that such a charge could temporarily stabilize the PBH before it finally blew apart. Importantly, when all existing data were included, the model predicted that an explosion might be seen as often as once every 10 years, rather than once every 100,000 years.
“We’re not saying it’s guaranteed,” said physicist Michael Baker, one of the study’s authors. “But there’s a strong chance—up to 90 percent—that we could actually witness one within this decade. And since we already have the technology to see it, we should be prepared.”
Catching a PBH explosion would be monumental. It would give scientists the first direct evidence of Hawking radiation and the first confirmed sighting of a primordial black hole.
Even more revolutionary, the particles released in such an explosion could serve as a complete inventory of all matter in the universe.
That means not only the familiar particles, like electrons and quarks, but also the elusive ones we suspect exist, such as dark matter, and perhaps entirely new particles we don’t yet know about. In effect, a PBH explosion could hand humanity a catalog of the building blocks of everything.
“This would completely change physics and our understanding of the universe,” said Joaquim Iguaz Juan, a co-author of the study. “It could even help us rewrite the history of how everything began.”
The countdown is on. If the Amherst team is right, the next decade may give us a front-row seat to one of the rarest and most revealing events in the cosmos.
