A recent study predicts that by 2050, 25.2 million people worldwide will be living with Parkinson’s disease—more than double the number from 2021. This increase is mostly due to aging populations. The study, published in The BMJ, highlights the growing impact of this disease and the need for better healthcare planning and research.
Parkinson’s disease is the fastest-growing neurological disorder in the world. It affects movement, causing symptoms like tremors, stiffness, and difficulty with balance. As people live longer, more of them will develop this condition. However, many countries do not yet have clear estimates of how many future cases to expect.
To fill this gap, researchers analyzed data from 195 countries and territories. They used information from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to predict how Parkinson’s cases will change over time. Their findings suggest that the number of people with Parkinson’s will rise by 112% by 2050.
The study found that the biggest increase in cases will happen in East Asia, where the number is expected to reach 10.9 million. South Asia will follow with 6.8 million cases. In contrast, the smallest number of cases will be in Oceania and Australasia.
Western Sub-Saharan Africa will see the sharpest rise in cases, with an increase of nearly 300%. Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe will have the smallest rise (28%) due to lower birth rates and a smaller aging population.
One key factor behind the rise in Parkinson’s disease is the aging population. The study found that 89% of the increase is due to people living longer. Another 20% is due to overall population growth. This means that more people will be reaching the ages where Parkinson’s is more common.
The study also predicts that men will continue to have higher rates of Parkinson’s than women, and this gap will widen over time. By 2050, for every woman with the disease, there will be about 1.64 men affected.
The study also looked at lifestyle factors that might influence the number of Parkinson’s cases. It found that increasing physical activity could help reduce future cases. On the other hand, fewer people smoking may lead to a slight rise in prevalence, though this finding should be interpreted with caution.
Despite these insights, the researchers acknowledge some limitations in their study. In some regions, data on Parkinson’s disease is scarce or of lower quality.
The study also does not account for factors beyond aging and population growth, such as environmental risks, genetics, or long-term effects of COVID-19. Because of this, the actual number of cases in the future could be higher or lower than the study predicts.
Still, this study provides the most complete estimate so far of how Parkinson’s disease will spread worldwide in the coming decades. The researchers stress the need for more investment in new treatments, including gene therapy and cell replacement therapies, to slow the disease and improve the lives of those affected.
Health experts agree that studies like this are important for preparing healthcare systems for the future. They suggest using more advanced methods to predict chronic diseases like Parkinson’s more accurately. By doing so, governments and researchers can make better decisions about healthcare resources and policies to support patients in the years ahead.
If you care about Parkinson’s disease, please read studies that Vitamin B may slow down cognitive decline, and Mediterranean diet could help lower risk of Parkinson’s.
For more health information, please see recent studies about how wheat gluten might be influencing our brain health, and Olive oil: a daily dose for better brain health.
The research findings can be found in The BMJ.
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