The Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” (LIA), a critical habitat for animals that depend on sea ice, could vanish within a decade after the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in summer.
Previous estimates suggested the LIA might survive for several more decades, but new research from McGill University shows it could disappear much sooner.
The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, used high-resolution models to analyze the LIA.
This area, located north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, has thicker, older ice that provides essential habitat for polar bears, walruses, seals, whales, and ivory gulls. Its survival is crucial for the Arctic ecosystem.
“These findings highlight how urgent it is to reduce global warming to protect the LIA and its unique habitats,” said Madeleine Fol, lead author of the study, which was part of her Master of Science research.
The study found that as the central Arctic Ocean reaches ice-free conditions in summer—which could happen by mid-century—the thick ice in the LIA may start moving south through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Once in warmer waters, the ice melts quickly.
This process, called “flushing,” could cause the LIA to disappear within a decade.
High-resolution models were crucial for these findings because they included the transport of sea ice through the narrow channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
Previous lower-resolution models didn’t account for this, leading to overly optimistic predictions about the LIA’s survival.
Inuit communities and environmental groups, such as the World Wildlife Fund, have long advocated for the protection of the LIA. In 2019, the Canadian government designated part of the area as the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area. This temporary protection was extended in 2024 while long-term plans are considered.
“The thick ice in the LIA acts as a barrier, slowing the movement of ice through the archipelago,” explained Bruno Tremblay, a co-author of the study. “Conserving this ice is essential to protecting the LIA.”
This new research emphasizes the need for urgent global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow Arctic warming. Without significant changes, the LIA’s loss could devastate Arctic ecosystems and the animals that depend on sea ice for survival. Protecting the LIA is not just about saving ice—it’s about preserving a vital part of the planet’s biodiversity.
