A new study has revealed that a “vascular fingerprint” in the retina—the light-sensitive layer at the back of the eye—can predict the risk of stroke as accurately as traditional risk factors, but without the need for invasive lab tests.
Published in the journal Heart, the research highlights a simple, practical method that could be particularly beneficial in primary healthcare and low-resource settings.
Stroke, which affects around 100 million people globally and causes 6.7 million deaths annually, is often linked to modifiable risk factors like high blood pressure, smoking, poor diet, and high cholesterol.
The retina’s vascular network shares structural and functional similarities with the blood vessels in the brain, making it an excellent indicator of systemic health issues, such as diabetes. This connection has led researchers to explore the retina’s potential for predicting stroke risk.
Advances in machine learning, particularly through the Retina-based Microvascular Health Assessment System (RMHAS), have now made it possible to identify biological markers in the retina that can predict stroke risk accurately, without the need for complex or invasive tests.
The research team analyzed fundus images—specialized photographs of the back of the eye—from 68,753 participants in the UK Biobank study. They measured 30 retinal vascular indicators across five categories:
- Caliber: Length, diameter, and ratio of blood vessels.
- Density: The number of blood vessels in a specific area.
- Twistedness: How curved or twisted the vessels are.
- Branching Angle: The angles at which blood vessels split.
- Complexity: The overall structure and pattern of the vascular network.
They also accounted for traditional risk factors, including age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status.
The final analysis included 45,161 participants, with an average age of 55. During the 12.5-year monitoring period, 749 participants experienced a stroke.
These individuals were more likely to be older, male, current smokers, or diabetic, and they also had higher blood pressure, BMI, and lower levels of “good” cholesterol—factors already known to increase stroke risk.
The study identified 118 retinal vascular indicators, with 29 of these significantly linked to the risk of a first-time stroke. Among these:
- Density indicators: Changes in blood vessel density increased stroke risk by 10–19%.
- Caliber indicators: Changes in the size and shape of blood vessels raised the risk by 10–14%.
- Complexity and twistedness indicators: Decreases in these measurements increased stroke risk by 10.5–19.5%.
Remarkably, this retinal “vascular fingerprint,” combined with just age and sex, was as effective as traditional risk factors for predicting stroke risk.
The findings suggest that retinal scans could become a valuable tool for assessing stroke risk, especially in primary care and settings with limited resources. Routine fundus photography, already widely used by eye care professionals, could offer a non-invasive, accessible way to evaluate vascular health and predict future strokes.
While the study offers exciting possibilities, it is observational, meaning it cannot establish cause and effect. Additionally, the findings are based primarily on a white population, limiting their applicability to diverse ethnic groups. The study also did not differentiate between types of stroke, leaving room for further investigation.
Despite these limitations, the researchers emphasize the practical benefits of this approach. By combining retinal imaging with basic patient information like age and sex, healthcare providers can gain a valuable tool for early stroke risk assessment.
This study demonstrates the potential of retinal scans as a simple, effective way to predict stroke risk. By harnessing advancements in technology and machine learning, this method could transform stroke prevention strategies, making them more accessible and efficient, particularly in resource-limited settings.
Further research is needed to expand the findings to diverse populations and explore their application across different types of strokes. Nonetheless, this breakthrough represents a promising step forward in preventing one of the world’s most significant health challenges.
If you care about blood pressure, please read studies about blood pressure drug that may increase risk of sudden cardiac arrest, and these teas could help reduce high blood pressure.
For more information about health, please see recent studies about nutrient that could strongly lower high blood pressure, and results showing this novel antioxidant may help reverse blood vessels aging by 20 years.
The research findings can be found in Heart.
Copyright © 2025 Knowridge Science Report. All rights reserved.
