Autism diagnoses in the U.S. have nearly tripled in just over ten years, according to a new study, with the most significant increases seen among young adults and women.
By examining data on over 12 million patients from major U.S. health care systems, researchers discovered a 175% rise in autism cases from 2011 to 2022, published in JAMA Network Open.
This increase was particularly steep among adults aged 26 to 34, where diagnoses surged by 450%—more than fivefold over the decade.
Boys are still diagnosed with autism at four times the rate of girls, but the gap is narrowing. Diagnoses for girls have risen sharply, with autism cases among young women up by 305%, compared to 185% for boys. For adult women, diagnoses increased by 315%, while men saw a 215% rise.
So, what’s behind these trends? The researchers, led by Luke Grosvenor of Kaiser Permanente, suggest several factors. Increased awareness and advocacy have made more people comfortable seeking a diagnosis.
Changes in developmental screenings, diagnostic definitions, and other medical guidelines have also likely contributed to the rise.
A significant factor for the jump in female diagnoses may be that autism often presents differently in girls and women. Past social pressures may have led some women to mask or “camouflage” autistic traits to fit societal norms, which could delay or prevent a diagnosis.
However, as stigmas ease, more women are seeking out evaluations, leading to a rise in diagnoses.
Despite the overall increase in diagnoses, autism rates are still highest among children. About 30 in every 1,000 children aged 5 to 8 have been diagnosed with autism, which is slightly higher than the general rate of 27.6 per 1,000 (or roughly 1 in 36) for children reported by the CDC in 2020.
While these numbers reflect a clearer picture of autism prevalence, the researchers note that their findings may still underestimate true rates, especially among adults. Many older adults may not have been screened in childhood, so they remain undiagnosed today.
This trend suggests that the population of autistic adults in the U.S. will continue to grow, stressing the need for expanded health care services to support individuals with autism across all ages.
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The research findings can be found in JAMA Network Open.
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