A new study estimates that over 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections worldwide in the next 25 years.
The research, published in The Lancet by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, is the first to analyze global trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) over time and provides a stark warning about the future of healthcare.
Antimicrobial resistance happens when bacteria, viruses, or other pathogens evolve and no longer respond to medications like antibiotics.
This makes infections harder to treat and increases the risk of serious illness or death.
The study found that between 1990 and 2021, more than one million people died each year due to AMR.
By 2050, the study predicts that 1.91 million people could die annually from AMR-related infections, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 2022.
The number of deaths in which AMR plays a role could rise by 75%, from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year.
While deaths from AMR among children under five have decreased by 50% since 1990, deaths among adults aged 70 and older have increased by more than 80%.
This trend is expected to continue, with deaths among older adults predicted to more than double by 2050.
The researchers attribute this shift to an aging global population and the increased vulnerability of older people to infections.
The study emphasizes the urgent need for better infection prevention, vaccinations, responsible use of antibiotics, and new drug development.
“Antimicrobial medicines are vital to modern healthcare, and rising resistance to them is a major concern,” said study author Dr. Mohsen Naghavi from the University of Washington.
“Understanding how AMR deaths have changed over time helps us make informed decisions to save lives.”
AMR is already a major global health challenge. In 2019, AMR-related deaths surpassed those from HIV/AIDS or malaria, with 1.2 million people dying directly due to resistant infections.
The study estimates that by 2050, AMR will lead to more than 39 million deaths globally and be involved in 169 million deaths overall between 2025 and 2050.
The study found that AMR deaths increased most significantly in regions such as western sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Latin America, and Southeast Asia. However, improving access to antibiotics and healthcare could prevent up to 92 million deaths globally by 2050.
The authors urge global action to tackle AMR, including developing new antibiotics and ensuring better access to existing medications.
“If we don’t act now, resistant infections could cause 8 million deaths each year by 2050,” warned study author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “We must develop vaccines, new drugs, and better healthcare systems to prevent this crisis.”
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Source: Lancet.
