Researchers from the University of Copenhagen predict that the Thermohaline Circulation, an essential system of ocean currents, will collapse around the year 2060 if greenhouse gas emissions persist at the current levels.
This prediction contradicts the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which considers such a sudden change in the circulation unlikely within this century.
The Thermohaline Circulation, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plays a crucial role in redistributing cold and heat between the North Atlantic region and the tropics.
Its shutdown could lead to severe consequences for the Earth’s climate, such as alterations in global heat and precipitation distribution.
For example, while Europe may experience cooling, the tropics might face intensified warming, exacerbating already challenging living conditions there.
The study’s prediction derives from early warning signals exhibited by ocean currents as they grow unstable.
Using new and advanced statistical tools, along with ocean temperature data from the past 150 years, the researchers calculated—with 95% certainty—that the AMOC will cease to function between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely timeline being 2057.
The Thermohaline Circulation has been operating in its current mode since the last ice age when it indeed collapsed.
Abrupt climate shifts between the current state of the AMOC and the collapsed state have occurred 25 times in conjunction with ice age climates, resulting in extreme climate changes.
The AMOC is a significant component of a global system of ocean currents, responsible for the substantial part of heat redistribution from the tropics to the northernmost regions of the Atlantic, especially Western Europe.
Its circulation ensures the transformation of surface water into deep, southbound ocean currents at the northernmost latitudes, creating space for more surface water to move northward from equatorial regions.
This process is crucial for maintaining the relatively mild climate of the North Atlantic region.
The researchers stress the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to prevent such a catastrophic event.
The study was published in Nature Communications.
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