In a new study, researchers found 11 states with surging COVID-19 rates are currently at risk of straining their supply of intensivists, doctors who are trained to work in intensive care units (ICU).
They found that Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington all could face a shortage of intensivists.
In addition, Arizona and Texas face a shortfall of intensivists even just for the COVID-19 patients.
The findings suggest that a rapid increase in severely ill COVID-19 patients could overwhelm understaffed ICUs in many states.
The research was conducted by a team at George Washington University.
While the media has largely focused on the danger of depleting ICU beds, workforce shortages to staff these units can be an even greater problem.
New beds can be set up in other hospital units, or even outside the hospital setting, but ICU staffing is relatively finite.
To assess the demand for health care workers needed to care for projected COVID-19 and non-COVID 19 patients in hospitals, the team used data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s model of demand for hospitalizations.
The purpose of the study is to help states and the federal government gauge the demand for health care professionals under different scenarios of COVID 19 infection rates and attrition.
Attrition refers to the loss of health care workers due to illness, childcare or other reasons, such as burnout.
The team found the timing of the shortfalls varies by state. Six of the 11 states facing a strained intensivist workforce are not expected to have COVID-19 hospitalizations peak until early November.
This suggests that these are the states that are most at risk of shortages and in need of workforce planning. These states are Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
The study allows state and federal policymakers to plan for looming spikes in COVID-19 cases and prepare by developing surge staffing plans, implementing emergency licensing for inactive health personnel, and/or recruiting from other states and the federal health workforce, among other measures.
One researcher of the study is Patricia (Polly) Pittman, Ph.D., director of the Mullan Institute.
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