In a new study, researchers have shown that a big proportion of people in the UK—over 25%—is likely to have been infected already by the COVID-19 virus.
The study is the first to use the published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the COVID-19 outbreak began.
The research was conducted by a team from The University of Manchester and elsewhere.
The team was able to calculate the R-value—the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19—within each local authority area.
The published case data from the 144 Local Authorities analyzed by the team now gives an R-value of well below 1.
The value—which was over 3 at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March 2020—fell as a consequence of social distancing combined with the natural consequences of cumulative community infection.
Daily reported cases peaked at the beginning of April 2020 and hospital deaths a week later in England.
By the second half of April, based on extrapolating the variation in infection rate between local authorities with more or fewer cases reported depending on location, over 25% in the UK population could already have had the virus, the team has found.
They also demonstrated that like any virus, COVID-19 has taken its natural course and infected a significant percentage of the UK population.
The more people that are exposed to this—or any—virus, the less easy it is for further transmission to occur.
Government policy can only moderate the impact of using measures like widespread testing, social distancing, and personal protective equipment.
The social and economic impacts of Lockdown have been very difficult, but they believe this analysis may aid policymakers in a smoother transition to reducing social containment and sustainably managing the COVID-19 disease.
This will allow policymakers to avoid a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to pandemic policy, which does not consider the variation in both infection rates and impact across localities.
One author of the study is Dr. Adrian Heald from The University of Manchester.
The study is published in the International Journal of Clinical Practice.
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