In a new study, researchers suggest that among detected cases of COVID-19 in the United States, 1.3% of patients will die from the illness.
But that rate could increase if current precautions and health care capacities change.
The research was conducted by a team at the University of Washington in Seattle.
The new findings are based on 40,835 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,620 confirmed deaths in 116 counties across 33 states through April 20.
Death rates varied widely across locales, with some counties recording a death rate of just 0.5% while others went as high as 3.6%.
The team says the 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms.
If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%.
The researchers stress that the current estimates apply under the assumption that the current supply of health care services, including hospital beds, ventilators, and access to health care providers, would continue in the future.
Declines in the availability of health care services could increase COVID-19 death rates.
Most crucially, social distancing, and other preventive measures will help keep the U.S. COVID-19 death rate down.
Many states are already moving to relax restrictions on “shelter in place” rules, with businesses, beaches, and parks reopening.
The current estimated COVID-19 death rate of 1.3% is still much higher than the U.S. death rate for seasonal flu for 2018-2019, which was just 0.1% of cases.
But the new estimate is much lower than prior death rate calculations.
The team says that determining the COVID-19 death rate is crucial in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
One author of the study is researcher Anirban Basu.
The study is published in Health Affairs.
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