Colombia may lose nearly one-fifth of the land currently suitable for growing cocoa by 2050, according to a new scientific study.
The research suggests that climate change could significantly alter where cocoa can be grown in the country over the next few decades.
The study was carried out by researchers from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, the Colombian cocoa federation Fedecacao, and the agricultural research organization AGROSAVIA.
By combining climate projections with data on today’s cocoa-growing regions and the distribution of wild cocoa plants, the team estimated how future climate conditions could affect cocoa production.
Their findings were published in the journal Regional Environmental Change.
The results show that some of the biggest losses in suitable cocoa-growing land could occur in Colombia’s lowland regions.
Areas along the Caribbean coast and several northeastern departments may be particularly affected.
These include Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre, Antioquia, Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada.
Scientists say rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable rainfall are the main threats. Hotter conditions and irregular rain can stress cocoa trees, reduce yields, and make farming more difficult for growers who depend on cocoa for their livelihoods.
Carlos Eduardo González, a researcher at AGROSAVIA and one of the study’s lead authors, said recent weather events already show how climate variability can affect agriculture.
For example, unusual cold conditions recently caused severe flooding in parts of northern Colombia and the Caribbean region. These kinds of climate extremes are expected to become more common as the climate continues to change.
Despite these challenges, the study also found reasons for cautious optimism. Cocoa is not expected to disappear from Colombia.
Instead, production areas may gradually shift. The foothills of the Andes, where much of Colombia’s cocoa is already grown, are likely to remain suitable for cultivation. In fact, the study suggests that suitable land for cocoa could increase by about 3 percent in higher elevation areas.
Another important discovery involves wild cocoa plants. Unlike cultivated cocoa, wild varieties have evolved over thousands of years in a wide range of environmental conditions. Some populations grow in very hot, dry, or wet environments, making them valuable sources of genetic traits that could help scientists develop new cocoa varieties better suited to future climates.
Researchers say protecting the forests where these wild cocoa plants grow is critical. These ecosystems contain important genetic resources that could help cocoa farming adapt to climate change.
The study also highlights several practical strategies that could help farmers cope with changing conditions. Growing cocoa in agroforestry systems—where cocoa trees are planted under the shade of taller trees—can help reduce heat stress and maintain soil moisture. In areas that may face more frequent droughts, irrigation systems could also help stabilize production.
Scientists say reliable climate information and careful land-use planning will be essential in the coming decades. By working with farmers and institutions such as Colombia’s Ministry of Agriculture and Fedecacao, policymakers hope to reduce risks and support the long-term sustainability of the country’s cocoa sector.
The researchers plan to integrate their findings into the online platform cacaodiversity.org, which will help guide farmers toward the best adaptation strategies for cocoa cultivation in the future.
