Sea levels are rising across most of the planet as the climate warms and ice melts.
But around Greenland, scientists say the opposite is likely to happen.
According to new research published in Nature Communications, sea levels along Greenland’s coastline are expected to fall significantly by the end of this century—even under scenarios where global warming continues.
The projected drop could be dramatic. In a future where greenhouse gas emissions are kept low, sea levels around Greenland may fall by about 0.9 meters, or roughly three feet, by 2100.
In a high-emissions future, the decline could reach around 2.5 meters, or more than eight feet.
This surprising result comes down to how Greenland’s massive ice sheet interacts with both the land beneath it and the surrounding ocean.
Greenland is covered by a vast ice sheet up to a mile thick, which currently blankets about 80 percent of the island. As the climate warms, this ice sheet is shrinking, losing around 200 billion tons of ice every year.
As that enormous weight is removed, the land underneath begins to rise. Scientists compare this process to a memory-foam mattress slowly springing back after someone stands up.
This upward movement of the land causes the relative sea level along the coast to drop, even if the total amount of water in the oceans is increasing globally.
There is another, less obvious factor at work: gravity. Large ice sheets have enough mass to pull nearby ocean water toward them.
When Greenland’s ice sheet was larger, its gravity slightly raised sea levels along the coast.
As the ice melts and loses mass, that gravitational pull weakens. Water is no longer drawn toward Greenland as strongly, causing local sea levels to fall even further. Researchers estimate this gravitational effect could account for up to 30 percent of the sea level drop around the island.
Together, the rising land and the weakening gravitational pull are known as glacial isostatic adjustment.
While scientists have studied this process before, the new research takes a more detailed approach.
The team combined evidence from ancient sea level changes over thousands of years with modern measurements from satellite signals collected at dozens of communication towers across Greenland. This allowed them to track how quickly the land is rising today.
Their findings suggest Earth’s interior responds to ice loss faster than previously thought, leading to greater and quicker sea level drops around Greenland than many earlier models predicted.
The consequences could be significant for local communities. Coastal infrastructure built for today’s sea levels may end up far from the water, affecting ports, fishing activities, shipping routes, and coastal planning.
On the other hand, falling sea levels might help stabilize some glaciers where they meet the ocean, potentially slowing ice loss—though scientists are not yet sure if the drop will be large enough to have this effect.
The study highlights an important message: sea level change is not the same everywhere.
While Greenland is unusual in expecting falling seas, other regions will experience different patterns shaped by local geology, gravity, and ice loss. To understand future risks, scientists say sea level projections must be made at regional and local scales—not just globally.
