A new study from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet has found that a small number of common blood markers can help predict which older adults are most at risk of developing multiple chronic diseases.
This condition—called multimorbidity—is when someone lives with several long-term illnesses at once, which is very common in older people and puts pressure on both their health and the healthcare system.
Researchers studied blood samples from over 2,200 adults aged 60 and older in Stockholm. They focused on 54 markers that reflect key health processes like inflammation, blood vessel health, metabolism, and brain changes.
They then tracked how these markers were linked to the number and type of chronic illnesses people developed over 15 years, and how quickly these illnesses appeared.
They discovered seven blood markers that were especially helpful in predicting health outcomes. Five of them—GDF-15, HbA1c, Cystatin C, leptin, and insulin—were linked to the number of diseases and the types of conditions people had. Two more—gamma-glutamyl transferase and albumin—were associated with how quickly new diseases developed.
Lead researcher Alice Margherita Ornago said that markers related to metabolism had the strongest links to disease risk.
According to senior researcher Davide Liborio Vetrano, this means that changes in how the body handles energy and stress may drive disease in older adults. A simple blood test could help identify people at higher risk, allowing for earlier care and treatment.
The team now plans to follow how these blood markers change over time and explore whether lifestyle changes or medications can reduce the risk of disease in aging adults.
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The study is published in Nature Medicine.
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