Researchers at the University of Vermont have created a better way to predict the risk of stroke in people who have atrial fibrillation, also known as A-Fib.
This condition affects over 10 million Americans and is one of the main causes of stroke.
Their findings, published on August 6 in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, show that adding a few simple blood tests to an existing stroke risk calculator can give doctors a more accurate way to decide who really needs blood-thinning medication. These medications can prevent strokes, but they also come with a risk of serious bleeding.
“This could be a game-changer for stroke prevention,” said lead researcher Dr. Mary Cushman from the University of Vermont. “We’re giving doctors a better tool to personalize care—helping the people who truly need medication, while avoiding unnecessary risk for others.”
Currently, doctors use a tool called the CHA2DS2-VASc score to estimate stroke risk in people with A-Fib. It looks at a person’s age, sex, and medical history.
However, it doesn’t take into account other important factors, like how the heart is functioning, how fast the blood is clotting, or whether there is inflammation in the body. These can be measured with blood tests.
The new tool, called the CHA2DS2-VASc-Biomarkers score, includes blood test results to make the stroke prediction more accurate. This new score is based on two large studies done at the University of Vermont’s Center for Cardiovascular and Brain Health.
In the first study, researchers followed 713 people who were already taking blood thinners to prevent stroke. After 12 years, 9% of them still had a stroke. The researchers found that three specific blood tests—measuring heart strain, blood clotting, and inflammation—helped predict who would have a stroke.
In the second study, they followed 2,400 people who were not taking any stroke-preventing medication. Over 13 years, 7% of them had a stroke. Two of the same blood tests were found to improve the old stroke risk score. These two tests were then added to the CHA2DS2-VASc tool to make the new, improved version.
Dr. Samuel Short, now a hematology fellow at the University of North Carolina, was the lead author. He started this research as a medical student under Dr. Cushman’s guidance. They used data from a large national project called REGARDS, which has been following more than 30,000 people to study stroke and other diseases.
The new scoring system is now available online, so doctors can use it to make better treatment choices. This could help save lives and lower healthcare costs by making sure the right people get the right medicine at the right time.
If you care about heart health, please read studies about heart disease hidden and essential vitamins for heart health: a guide to a healthy heart.
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The study is published in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis.
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