People in Sweden are living longer than ever before. Just a few decades ago, reaching the age of 85 or 90 was uncommon. Now, most Swedes live well into their 80s or 90s, and about two percent of the population even reach 100. In fact, centenarians—those aged 100 or older—are now the fastest-growing age group in the country.
Karin Modig, an associate professor at the Institute of Environmental Medicine at Karolinska Institutet, has been studying aging and what factors may help predict who lives to a very old age. In a recent study published in the journal GeroScience, Modig and her team found that certain health markers in early old age might help forecast who will become a centenarian.
The research focused on more than 44,000 Swedes who were between the ages of 64 and 99 when they had health checkups between 1985 and 1996. Out of all these participants, 1,224 eventually lived to 100 years or more.
By comparing the early health data of those who reached 100 with those who didn’t, the researchers discovered a clear pattern: centenarians were often already healthier in their 60s than their peers.
The study looked at 12 different biomarkers—measurable indicators of health and disease. Of these, 10 were found to be linked to a better chance of reaching 100. One of the strongest predictors was creatinine, a marker of kidney health. Nearly all centenarians had normal creatinine levels, suggesting their kidneys were in good shape even decades earlier.
Other important biomarkers included liver function and uric acid levels, which can signal inflammation in the body. Participants with the lowest levels of uric acid had a 4% chance of reaching 100, while those with the highest levels had only a 1.5% chance.
Blood sugar levels also stood out—most centenarians had kept their levels under 6.5 mmol/liter, which suggests they were less likely to have diabetes or blood sugar problems.
These findings suggest that living to 100 isn’t just about genetics or luck. While those do matter, maintaining good health earlier in life plays a major role. Modig believes that by monitoring and managing certain health markers, people may be able to improve their odds of reaching a very old age.
That said, Modig also offers a balanced perspective. She points out that living well doesn’t mean we need to obsess over every health rule. “Everyone must find a balance between risk factors and health factors,” she says. In other words, it’s not about being perfect—it’s about making thoughtful choices that support long-term health.
For anyone hoping to live a long, full life, this study offers a hopeful message: caring for your health in your 60s and even earlier could make a real difference decades later. The road to 100 might start much sooner than you think, and the choices you make today may help shape your tomorrow.
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