Electric trucks are on track to become cheaper than diesel trucks over their lifetime, and new research shows this tipping point is arriving much sooner than expected.
A recent report led by the University of Exeter and the International Council on Clean Transportation reveals that electric trucks are already the most cost-effective option in some parts of the world, especially in China and India.
This shift could bring big wins for the economy, the environment, and public health.
The study looked at the total cost of ownership, which includes the upfront cost of the vehicle, fuel or electricity, maintenance, and infrastructure needs over the truck’s lifespan.
It found that electric trucks, even though they cost more to buy upfront, are often cheaper to run.
In fact, in places like China, electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks are already more affordable than diesel ones when all lifetime costs are taken into account. In other regions, cost parity is expected before 2033.
Lead researcher Dr. Amir Akther said the team was surprised by how close the tipping point is. “We thought it would take longer, but in some regions and vehicle types, it’s already here,” he said.
While electric cars have seen rapid growth—with EVs making up about 20% of global car sales—the rise of electric trucks is still in its early stages.
Only 0.9% of trucks sold in 2023 were electric, but that number is climbing fast, especially in China. In fact, there are already 750 electric truck models available across China, Europe, and North America.
As battery technology improves and costs fall—lithium iron phosphate battery prices have dropped by 86% since 2013—the case for electric trucks continues to grow stronger.
The report also emphasizes the importance of good policies. Regulations that require a growing percentage of trucks sold to be zero-emission vehicles have proven highly effective. Although subsidies and tax incentives help, especially early on, combining policies creates the most powerful push for change.
Switching to electric trucks could also help reduce the 400,000 deaths caused each year by air pollution from transport.
In countries like India, where trucks make up just 3% of road vehicles but produce 40% of road freight emissions, the shift could dramatically cut pollution and carbon output. It would also reduce reliance on expensive oil imports and lower business transport costs—boosting productivity and economic growth.
To fully support the transition, investment in charging stations and stronger electricity grids will be crucial. But with the right steps, the road ahead for electric trucks looks bright—and cost-effective.
