When news broke that asteroid 2024 YR4 had a chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, it caused quite a stir.
On February 18, scientists at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) said the asteroid had a 3% chance of impact — the highest risk ever recorded for an object of its size.
Although further data later lowered that risk to less than 1%, the moment showed just how important NASA’s asteroid tracking efforts are in protecting our planet.
Thanks to updated observations, we now know 2024 YR4 won’t hit Earth. But the scare highlights how sharing and analyzing space data plays a big role in keeping us safe.
NASA and other global space scientists keep a close eye on asteroids known as near-Earth objects (NEOs).
These are comets or asteroids that come within 120 million miles of the Sun — close enough to pass through Earth’s orbital zone.
When an NEO is discovered, its information is shared on the Minor Planet Center’s NEO Confirmation Page, allowing scientists around the world (including citizen scientists) to track and study its path.
Observations come from many telescopes, including NASA-funded surveys like ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System).
If a new asteroid appears to be on a potentially dangerous path, CNEOS takes a closer look and alerts NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which also works with the International Asteroid Warning Network. These teams use advanced models to calculate the likelihood of a collision and update the predictions as new data comes in.
This open sharing of information helps create the most accurate picture possible of any potential threat.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered by ATLAS, and its early data showed a wide range of possible paths — one of which passed directly over Earth in 2032. As more observatories added data points, the chances of a collision seemed to grow.
But scientists kept collecting new measurements, and eventually those showed that YR4’s path had shifted safely away from Earth. This process is a great example of how fast data sharing and teamwork can reduce fear and prevent false alarms.
While tracking is key, NASA is also developing ways to deflect dangerous asteroids, just in case one ever does head our way.
In 2022, NASA launched the DART mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). The spacecraft intentionally crashed into an asteroid named Dimorphos, successfully changing its orbit by 33 minutes. This was a major breakthrough — proving we can push an asteroid off course if needed.
NASA is also building the NEO Surveyor, a space telescope designed specifically to spot dangerous asteroids. Set to launch in 2027, it will scan the skies for threats and make its data public, helping the world prepare sooner and respond better.
NASA and its partners believe that sharing science openly makes everyone safer. The more eyes on the sky, the better our chances of catching threats early and avoiding disaster.
As NASA expert James “Gerbs” Bauer puts it, “Asteroid impacts are rare, but the results could be huge. Open science helps us stay alert and ready.”
Source: NASA.
