Millions of people with type 2 diabetes could soon receive better treatment thanks to a new, low-cost tool developed by researchers at the University of Exeter.
The tool, which predicts the most effective glucose-lowering drug for each patient, could improve blood sugar management and reduce the risk of serious complications. The findings were announced at the Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2025 and published in The Lancet.
The Challenge of Diabetes Treatment
Keeping blood sugar levels in a healthy range is crucial for people with type 2 diabetes to prevent complications like heart disease, stroke, kidney failure, and nerve damage.
However, this can be difficult, and only about one-third of patients achieve their target levels. In the UK, £6.2 billion is spent each year treating diabetes-related complications, highlighting the urgent need for better treatment strategies.
Most people with type 2 diabetes start with metformin, but if it’s not enough, doctors must choose from five other major glucose-lowering drugs. The problem is that these medications work differently for each person, making it difficult to select the best option. Until now, there was no reliable way to predict which drug would be most effective for an individual patient.
A Game-Changing Solution
The new tool was designed to solve this problem. Using data from one million patients in the UK, researchers linked GP and hospital records to develop a model that predicts the best glucose-lowering drug for each person. The tool was then tested and validated with clinical trial data, confirming its accuracy.
Shockingly, the study found that only 18% of people with type 2 diabetes in the UK are currently receiving the most effective drug for them.
The tool’s predictions could lead to:
- Better blood sugar control, reducing average HbA1c levels by 5 mmol/mol after one year.
- Delaying the need for additional diabetes medications, effectively doubling the time before patients need stronger treatments.
- Lowering the risk of serious complications, including heart attacks, strokes, and kidney disease.
How It Works
The tool uses routine clinical data, including sex, weight, and standard blood test results, to determine which drug will be most effective for a patient. Because it relies on data already collected in standard care, it can be implemented immediately and at no extra cost to healthcare providers.
Testing and Future Rollout
The tool is currently being tested in 22,500 patients with type 2 diabetes across Scotland. If successful, it could be rolled out across the UK and globally, bringing in a new era of personalized diabetes treatment.
John Dennis, Associate Professor at the University of Exeter, who led the study, said:
“For the first time, people with type 2 diabetes can quickly find out which medication will work best for them, reducing their risk of complications and improving their health. This is a major advance in diabetes treatment.”
Professor Andrew Hattersley, a senior researcher on the project, added:
“Because the model uses routine health data, it can be used immediately without additional costs, helping people in the UK and worldwide.”
A Major Step Toward Personalized Medicine
Experts believe this tool could be one of the biggest breakthroughs in diabetes care in the last decade.
Dr. Elizabeth Robertson, Director of Research at Diabetes UK, said:
“If widely adopted, this tool could help millions of people with type 2 diabetes manage their blood sugar more effectively, reducing the risk of life-threatening complications.”
Dr. Adam Babbs, from the Medical Research Council, which funded the study, called the research “a trailblazing example of precision medicine.” He emphasized that personalized treatment could improve patient outcomes and make healthcare systems more efficient.
Conclusion
This simple, cost-effective tool has the potential to revolutionize type 2 diabetes care, helping millions of people worldwide get the right treatment at the right time. If clinical trials continue to show positive results, it could soon become a standard tool in diabetes treatment, improving the health and quality of life for countless patients.
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The research findings can be found in The Lancet.
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