Over the 19th and 20th centuries, life expectancy increased dramatically due to better diets, medical breakthroughs, and improved living conditions.
However, in the last 30 years, those gains have slowed down significantly, according to a new study led by the University of Illinois Chicago.
Despite ongoing advances in medicine and public health, life expectancy in the world’s longest-living populations has only increased by an average of six and a half years since 1990.
This is much less than some scientists predicted, as many expected life expectancy to continue rising quickly, with more people living past 100.
The study, published in Nature Aging and titled “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century,” suggests that we may be approaching a biological limit to human life.
Dr. S. Jay Olshansky, the lead author and a professor at the UIC School of Public Health, explained that the major improvements in life expectancy came from fighting diseases.
However, the main challenge now is the aging process itself, which is harder to combat.
“Many older people today are living longer because of medical treatments,” Olshansky said, “but these treatments are producing fewer extra years of life, and the rapid rise in life expectancy is slowing.”
Olshansky also warned that extending life further without ensuring that these extra years are healthy could be problematic.
He believes we should focus on “healthspan,” or the number of years people remain healthy, rather than just living longer.
The study also found that while some people may reach 100 years or more, these cases will remain rare and won’t raise the average life expectancy much.
While this research suggests there is a limit to how much life expectancy can increase, Olshansky stresses that we can still make progress. By investing in research on aging and encouraging healthier lifestyles, people can live longer, healthier lives.
“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky said, pointing out that with continued efforts, we can improve health and quality of life, even if we can’t radically extend how long we live.
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