Strawberries might become scarcer and more expensive due to rising temperatures from climate change, according to new research from the University of Waterloo.
The study reveals that even a modest increase in temperature—just 3 degrees Fahrenheit—could slash strawberry yields by up to 40%.
Canada relies heavily on strawberry imports from California, with these imports valued at US$322.8 million in 2022.
This potential decrease in strawberry production could significantly impact the availability and cost of strawberries for Canadian consumers.
“This research shows how climate change can directly impact the foods we love, emphasizing the importance of sustainable farming practices to maintain a stable food supply for everyone,” said Dr. Poornima Unnikrishnan, a postdoctoral fellow at Waterloo’s Department of Systems Design Engineering.
To combat the effects of rising temperatures, farmers could adopt sustainable farming practices.
These might include optimizing irrigation to ensure sufficient water during heat waves, using drip irrigation, scheduling farming operations to avoid peak heat times, and using shading plants or structures to protect crops from heat stress.
The research team, which included Dr. Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam from Waterloo and Dr. Fakhri Karray from the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence in Abu Dhabi, chose to study strawberries because of their popularity and short shelf life.
The results suggest that other produce imported from California could also be affected by similar temperature increases.
The researchers used a model that predicts the likelihood of yield loss by linking air temperature changes to strawberry yield. This method allowed them to measure greater variability over time and achieve the most accurate findings to date.
“We hope the better understanding of the influence of rising temperatures on crop yield will help in the development of sustainable agriculture responses from the government and farmers,” said Ponnambalam. “There is an urgent need for farmers to adopt new strategies to cope with global warming.”
Strawberries are a significant commodity for the economies of California and the United States, with the 2022 market worth more than US$3 billion. The potential impact of reduced yields due to rising temperatures could have broad economic implications.
The research paper, “Influence of Regional Temperature Anomalies on Strawberry Yield: A Study Using Multivariate Copula Analysis,” was published in the journal Sustainability.
This study underscores the pressing need for sustainable agricultural practices to ensure the continued availability of strawberries and other crops in the face of climate change.
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