In a recent study that’s catching the eyes of many, researchers are sharing some surprising news about the future of the world’s population.
They’ve found that by the end of this century, the number of people in almost every country is expected to start going down.
This prediction comes from a team who looked at a lot of information from around the world about births, deaths, and what affects how many children families decide to have.
Right now, the study says that in half of the countries, not enough babies are being born to keep the population stable. They think this trend will grow so that by 2050, three out of four countries will see their populations getting smaller.
And by the time we reach the year 2100, this will be true for almost every country – 198 out of 204 countries and territories, to be exact.
However, it’s not the same picture everywhere. In some places like Samoa, Somalia, and a few others, families are expected to still have more children than the number needed to keep their population steady.
Meanwhile, many countries, especially richer ones with older populations, will see fewer babies being born.
This situation is going to lead to some big changes around the world. On one hand, some countries will be dealing with lots of young people and growing populations.
On the other hand, many countries will face the challenge of having fewer children and an increasing number of older people.
The people behind the study, from the US-based Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), are saying this will lead to big shifts in how societies work.
For one, countries might need to welcome more immigrants to keep their economies growing since there will be fewer people to work jobs and support the economy otherwise.
But not everyone is sure these predictions will come true exactly as stated. Experts from the World Health Organization are saying we should be careful about these projections.
They remind us that the predictions come from models which might not have all the data needed, especially from developing countries.
They also say that while having fewer people might present challenges like fewer workers and changes in international politics, it could also have benefits for things like the environment and making sure there’s enough food for everyone.
Another expert, not involved in the study, pointed out that these are just predictions and things could turn out differently.
For example, the United Nations has a more optimistic view, thinking the global population won’t start decreasing until around 2050, which is a bit later than what this study suggests.
This study is part of a larger effort by the IHME to understand the health challenges people face around the world. Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME has become a key source for health information globally.
So, as we look ahead, it’s clear that whether populations grow or shrink, the world is heading towards some significant changes that will affect economies, societies, and how we all live together on this planet.
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The research findings can be found in The Lancet.
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