A recent study conducted by experts from the U.S. biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks has raised concerns about the increasing threat of diseases transmitted from animals to humans, known as zoonotic diseases or spillovers. T
he research suggests that these diseases could potentially cause 12 times more fatalities in 2050 compared to 2020.
The study highlights the urgent need for global action to mitigate the risks to public health, emphasizing that climate change and deforestation may contribute to more frequent epidemics in the future.
The Scope of the Study
The study focused on the historical trends of four specific viral pathogens: filoviruses (including Ebola and Marburg viruses), SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus (causing Bolivian hemorrhagic fever).
It is important to note that the study did not include COVID-19, which triggered the global pandemic in 2020 and is believed to have originated in bats.
The research analyzed more than 3,150 outbreaks that occurred between 1963 and 2019, identifying 75 spillover events across 24 countries.
The database included epidemics reported by the World Health Organization, outbreaks causing 50 or more deaths, and historically significant events, such as the flu pandemics of 1918 and 1957.
During this period, these events led to a total of 17,232 deaths, with the majority (15,771) attributed to filoviruses, primarily in Africa.
The study revealed that epidemics linked to zoonotic spillovers have been steadily increasing at a rate of nearly 5% annually between 1963 and 2019, resulting in a 9% rise in deaths.
The researchers cautioned that if these trends persist, the analyzed pathogens could cause four times as many spillover events and 12 times as many deaths in 2050 as they did in 2020.
The figures presented in the study are likely conservative estimates due to the rigorous inclusion criteria for the pathogens studied and the exclusion of COVID-19.
The researchers stressed that the recent spillover-driven epidemics are not isolated incidents but part of a decades-long trend marked by larger and more frequent outbreaks.
The Urgent Need for Action
Based on historical trends, the research team emphasized the pressing need for immediate action to address the growing risk to global public health posed by zoonotic diseases.
Climate change and deforestation, among other factors, are expected to contribute to more frequent epidemics in the future.
The study’s findings have been published in the journal BMJ Global Health, underscoring the urgency of a coordinated and proactive response to mitigate this growing threat.
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The research findings can be found in BMJ Global Health.
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