In a new study from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, researchers found rising temperatures due to climate change will lead to an increase in cases of kidney stones over the next seven decades, even if measures are put in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Using data from South Carolina, the team found the increase will be steeper if no action is taken, but an uptick will occur even with mitigation actions, costing the state healthcare system approximately $57 million in the latter scenario and $99 million if nothing is done.
Kidney stone disease is a painful condition caused by hard deposits of minerals that develop in concentrated urine and cause pain when passing through the urinary tract.
The incidence of the condition has increased in the last 20 years, particularly among women and adolescents.
Prior research has demonstrated that high ambient temperatures increase the risk of developing kidney stone disease.
In the United States, there is an increase in the incidence of kidney stones from North to South, and there is a rapid increase in risk of kidney stone presentations following hot days.
In the study, the team created a model to estimate the impact of heat on future kidney stone presentations in South Carolina.
The researchers chose to use South Carolina as a model state because it lies within the “kidney stone belt” of the United States, a region in the Southeastern U.S. with a higher incidence of kidney stone disease; the state also uses an all-payer claims database, meaning researchers could capture stone diagnoses across the population, regardless of payer status.
The researchers first determined the relationship between historic daily statewide mean temperatures and kidney stone presentations in South Carolina from 1997 to 2014.
They then used that data to forecast the heat-related number of kidney stones and associated costs to 2089 based on projected daily WBT under two climate change scenarios.
Using their model, the researchers found that by 2089, kidney stones due to heat would increase statewide by 2.2%.
Based on a baseline average cost per patient of more than $9,000, the researchers forecast that from 2025 to 2089, the total cost attributable to these excess kidney stones would be between $56.6 million and $99.4 million.
The analysis showed how the burden of kidney stone disease is expected to progress with climate change, and also how mitigations to greenhouse gas emissions can offset some of this burden.
The team says a warming planet will have significant effects on human health. Researchers have a duty to explore the burden of climate change on human health, as the children of today will be living this reality in the future.
If you care about kidney health, please read studies about these unhealthy eating habits that may increase your risk of dangerous kidney disease, and how to protect against kidney disease.
For more information about kidney health, please see recent studies about why processed foods trigger chronic kidney disease and results showing that this diabetes drug may help slow down chronic kidney disease.
The study is published in Scientific Reports and was conducted by Gregory E. Tasian et al.
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