In a new study from Harvard, researchers found a SARS-CoV-2 variant with traits similar to that of the Delta variant—enhanced transmissibility and an ability to infect people who had previous infections/vaccination—will cause a more severe pandemic with more infections and breakthrough infections/reinfections.
As the COVID pandemic has progressed, variants of the initial wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus have emerged.
Some have quickly become a dominant strain and increased the number of infections, like the Alpha and Delta variants, while others, like Beta, failed to take hold or significantly affect the pandemic’s trajectory.
In the study, the team created a model that simulates how pandemics fuelled by hypothetical variants would affect populations that are using various combinations of masking with physical distancing, and vaccinations.
The analysis simulated a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with several different hypothetical variants including combinations of the two traits: enhanced transmissibility, similar to the Alpha variant; partial immune escape, similar to the Beta variant; enhanced transmissibility with partial immune escape, similar to the Delta variant; and a variant with neither trait.
The analysis also factored in how certain variables, such as masking/physical distancing or vaccinations, would affect the pandemic’s trajectory.
For each of the scenarios, the researchers analyzed the total number of infections as well as the number/percentage of infections averted by vaccination.
The team found that a variant with enhanced transmissibility alone would likely be more dangerous than a variant that could partially evade the immune system.
Yet a variant with both traits could cause more infections, reinfections, and breakthrough infections than a variant with either trait alone.
According to the model, vaccination is also predicted to be highly beneficial in the case of Delta-like variants because vaccinations would prevent a greater number of cases that a more transmissible virus would potentially cause.
And because the milder nature of breakthrough infections should substantially reduce overall mortality.
The team says it’s really important that people realize the emergence of variants like Delta makes high levels of vaccination all the more crucial.
Even if we cannot eliminate the virus, we can ensure that people face it with the best preparation, and a more transmissible virus means there will be more infections in the absence of vaccination, so more people stand to benefit from it.
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The study is published in Cell. One author of the study is Mary Bushman.
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