In a new study from the University of Utah, researchers say that within the next decade, the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 could become little more than a nuisance, causing no more than common cold-like coughs and sniffles.
That possible future is predicted by mathematical models that incorporate lessons learned from the current pandemic on how our body’s immunity changes over time.
The findings suggest that changes in the disease could be driven by adaptations of our immune response rather than by changes in the virus itself.
Although SARS-CoV-2 (the sometimes-deadly coronavirus causing COVID-19) is the best-known member of that virus family, other seasonal coronaviruses circulate in the human population—and they are much more benign.
Some evidence indicates that one of these cold-causing relatives might have once been severe, giving rise to the “Russian flu” pandemic in the late 19th century.
In the study, the team aimed to find whether the severity of SARS-CoV-2 could similarly lessen over time.
They built mathematical models incorporating evidence on the body’s immune response to SARS-CoV-2 based on the following data from the current pandemic.
There is likely a dose response between virus exposure and disease severity. A person exposed to a small dose of virus will be more likely to get a mild case of COVID-19 and shed small amounts of virus.
By contrast, adults exposed to a large dose of virus are more likely to have severe disease and shed more virus. Masking and social distancing decrease the viral dose.
Children are unlikely to develop severe diseases. Adults who have had COVID-19 or have been vaccinated are protected against severe disease.
Running several versions of these scenarios showed that the three mechanisms in combination set up a situation where an increasing proportion of the population will become predisposed for mild disease over the long term.
The scientists felt the transformation was strong enough that it needed a new term. In this scenario, SARS-CoV-2 would become “Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus,” or JASC for short.
The team says in the beginning of the pandemic, no one had seen the virus before. Our immune system was not prepared.
The models show that as more adults become partially immune, whether through prior infection or vaccination, severe infections all but disappear over the next decade.
Eventually, the only people who will be exposed to the virus for the first time will be children—and they’re naturally less prone to severe disease.
The models do not account for every potential influence on disease trajectory. For example, if new virus variants overcome partial immunity, COVID-19 could take a turn for the worse. In addition, the predictions rely on the key assumptions of the model holding up.
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The study is published in Viruses. One author of the study is Fred Adler, PhD.
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