In a new study, researchers found that a highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant was unknowingly spreading for months in the United States by October 2020.
Scientists first discovered it in early December in the United Kingdom, where the highly contagious and more lethal variant is thought to have originated.
The study provides evidence that the coronavirus variant B117 (501Y) had spread across the globe undetected for months when scientists discovered it.
The research was conducted by a team at the University of Texas at Austin.
Analyzing data from 15 countries, researchers estimated the chance that travelers from the U.K. introduced the variant into 15 countries between Sept. 22 and Dec. 7, 2020.
They found that the virus variant had almost certainly arrived in all 15 countries by mid-November. In the U.S., the variant probably had arrived by mid-October.
In conjunction with the paper’s publication, the team developed a new tool that decision-makers anywhere in the United States can use in planning for genetic sequencing that helps to detect the presence of variants.
To help the U.S. expand national surveillance of variants, the new online calculator indicates the number of virus samples that must be sequenced in order to detect new variants when they first emerge.
For example, if the goal is to detect an emerging variant by the time it is causing 1 out of every 1,000 new COVID-19 infections, approximately 3,000 SARS-CoV-2 positive specimens per week need to be sequenced.
The new calculator determines how many positive SARS-CoV-2 specimens must be sequenced to ensure that new threats are identified as soon as they start spreading.
The calculator also helps labs figure out how quickly they will detect new variants, given their current sequencing capacity.
The team created this tool to support federal, state and local health officials in building credible early warning systems for this and future pandemic threats.
The study is published in Emerging Infectious Diseases. One author of the study is Lauren Ancel Meyers.
Copyright © 2021 Knowridge Science Report. All rights reserved.
