In a new study, researchers found that the faster-spreading B.1.1.7 variant of COVID-19 virus first detected in the United Kingdom is quickly on its way to becoming the dominant variant of the virus in the United States.
The findings suggest that future COVID-19 case numbers and mortality rates in the United States will be higher than would have been otherwise.
The analysis suggests that the variant, which has been detectable in an increasing proportion of SARS-CoV-2 samples, is 40-50% more transmissible than SARS-CoV-2 lineages that were previously dominant.
Other studies have found evidence that the B.1.1.7 variant may be about 50 percent more likely to cause fatal COVID-19.
The research was conducted by scientists at Scripps Research and the COVID-19 test maker Helix.
The B.1.1.7 variant emerged in southern England last year and has since become the dominant variant in the U.K.
The B.1.1.7 variant contains several mutations, including several in the gene that encodes the viral spike protein. These mutations increase the spike’s ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor on human cells.
Although there is no evidence yet that the B.1.1.7 variant can evade COVID-19 vaccines, public health officials fear its relatively high rate of spread will strongly worsen the pandemic before vaccines can end it.
Standard swab tests for the coronavirus check for distinctive genetic sequences at three sites on the viral genome; the B.1.1.7 variant, due to its mutations, shows up as positive for two of those sites, but negative for the third site, which is within the virus’s spike gene.
The new analysis of roughly 500,000 Helix test results since July 2020 revealed that this two-of-three pattern, known as S-gene target failure, or SGTF, became consistently evident at a low frequency (0.2%) in mid-October.
By the third week of February, it had risen to a frequency of 10.6% and was detected in patients from 25 different U.S. states and territories.
The analysis also indicated that B.1.1.7 since December has accounted for a rapidly rising proportion of SGTF results—for example, reaching about 95 percent in California by mid-January.
The 662 instances of B.1.1.7 sequenced in the study were from samples gathered in 10 U.S. states, although the researchers note that other testing labs covering a total of 33 U.S. states and territories have by now reported to the CDC at least one B.1.1.7 case.
The team says B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.K. and other countries after its emergence late last year, and the U.S. is now on a similar trajectory.
People need immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
The study is published in Cell. One author of the study is Kristian Andersen, Ph.D.
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